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Wednesday, April 13, 2011

NHL East Playoff Preview



BY EVAN SPORER

EDITORIAL. PHOTOS BY AP IMAGES

With the NHL season finally concluding, eight teams in the Eastern Conference are all set and ready to make a run at Lord Stanley’s Cup. 

With no clean sweeps in any of the regular season matchups between the playoff pairings, here is the low down on how the first round could shape up.

#1 Washington Capitals vs. #8 New York Rangers

Conventional sports wisdom would tell you to pencil in the No. 1 seed in any one-eight tilt. But then again, conventional wisdom may be thrown out the window when these two rivals face off in the first round. 

The season series went to the Rangers 3-1. And not only did the Blueshirts take the series 3-1, they did it by winning the last three games of the series by a whopping combined score of 15-1! Plain and simple, the Rangers have owned the Caps this year. 

Why, you might ask? It’s simple; the Capitals are one of those teams the Rangers wake up, see on its schedule, and get pumped for. Rangers’ All-Stars Marc Staal and Henrik Lundqvist live to play against top tier talent like Alexander Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom. And, for whatever reason, the Rangers forwards put it into a different gear when they see the Caps. The Rangers averaged 2.75 goals in the 78 games they did not play the Caps. In the four they did? Oh, only 4.5 goals per, nearly a 63 percent increase.

So what does this series come down to? If the Rangers score the way they did against Washington in the regular season, the Eastern Conference regular season champs can kiss any chance at post-season honor goodbye. Caps head coach Bruce Boudreau has put an emphasis on defense this season, although it has been absent when his team has played the Rangers.

Washington is also going to have to find a way to beat Henrik Lundqvist, who boasts a 2-1 record versus the Caps this season with two shutouts. One thing the Caps also have to be weary of is that this Rangers team has been in playoff mode for months. The Caps have pretty much been in cruise control since the All-Star break. Don’t expect any game one jitters from the Rangers, but if the Capitals come out slow, don’t be surprised. 

When these two teams lock horned in this first round of the playoffs two years ago, it was the Caps digging themselves out of a 3-1 deficit to march into the second round with a 4-3 series win. I think the Rangers turn the tables on Washington this year, and send them back to the Beltway with an upset, Rangers 4, Capitals 2.

#2 Philadelphia Flyers vs. #7 Buffalo Sabres

Ryan Miller is good. Like, really good.

But when you look at the Buffalo Sabres, it basically starts, and ends, with Miller.

Problem spotted.

For the Sabres to make any noise in the playoffs, let alone get out of the first round, Ryan Miller will need to play the way he did in the 2010 Vancouver Olympics, and that can’t even guarantee any success for Buffalo.


The Sabres are going to have to bank on Philadelphia playing poorly, and more specifically, in-between the goal posts. While the Flyers can certainly fill it up offensively, its goaltending tandem of Brian Boucher and Sergei Bobrovsky have looked downright awful at times. The Flyers are the third highest scoring team in the league, but against a team like Buffalo, giving up three goals on any given night may be enough for Ryan Miller to nab the Sabres a win.

But I think this series really comes down to blue line versus blue line. Philly’s defense hosts a group of veterans including Kimmo Timonen and Chris Pronger, and some pretty experienced players in Braydon Coburn, Andrej Meszaros and Nick Boynton. Buffalo’s defense has an average age of 25, and a number of players with no post-season experience.

The one thing that’s really scary about the Flyers? Eight players on this team scored 16 or more goals this season. That’s almost enough to fill up three lines, meaning in the playoffs, if their top guys don’t contribute, they can count on the role players to fill it up. It always seems like whatever team in the post-season gets secondary scoring generally performs well, favoring a team like Philly.

Buffalo’s top guys are really going to have to perform offensively, as well. 30 goal-scorers Thomas Vanek and Drew Stafford will need to find the back of the net early and often. Super rookie Tyler Ennis is also crucial to Buffalo’s success, but putting that much pressure on a rookie could prove to be a problem.

So, give Ryan Miller one. But give Philly the rest. Broad Street Bullies get the nod in this series; Flyers 4, Sabres 1.

#3 Boston Bruins vs. #6 Montreal Canadiens

Ready for some old time hockey? Let's get into it.

These two teams hate each other; plain and simple. Short of the Montreal police arresting Zdeno Chara in the coming days, we’re looking at the same old characters that have been at each other’s necks all season. This is going to be a bad blood series. Montreal has already considered moving the day of its elections because they could fall on the same day as Game 3, and lord only knows hockey supersedes politics in the Great White North.

So what about the actual hockey itself? Montreal took the season series 4-2, but three of those wins came in the first three games the teams met. Since then, it’s been all Boston, in a slugfest, rock-em-sock-em style. 

In the last three games of this series, there were 26 goals scored -- over eight per. This playoff series should play a lot like those three games. Tons of goals, back and forth play. Penalties. Edge-of-your seat moments. You name it, this series will undoubtedly have it.

But which team does this favor? Even though Boston smoked Montreal in high scoring games during the regular season, a faster pace certainly favors Montreal. Boston is a team that likes to get the puck into the offensive zone and establish a forecheck, while relying on a solid defensive core and former (and maybe this year’s) Vezina winner Tim Thomas. So expect Boston to try to set the pace, and keep its foot off the accelerator.

But the Canadiens will be fine with a fast-paced series. It suits them better. Expect them to take every opportunity to get out on the rush. Missed shots, rebounds, and turnovers will result in Montreal players trying to force the effort. And when the Canadiens start darting all over the ice, you better believe the Bell Centre will be rocking. 

The home team won all but one game during the regular season when these two teams met, with Montreal stealing the first game these two teams played in the Hub. So definitely take that into consideration, which definitely favors Boston. 

This one goes to seven. No doubt in my mind. Boston had a historic collapse in the conference semi-finals last year. But I really think Boston’s home ice is the deciding factor in a game seven. Boston 4, Montreal 3.

#4 Tampa Bay Lightning vs. #5 Pittsburgh Penguins

If you had a really nice car, but then took out the motor, the exhaust, and the majority of the super essential pieces, you would just have a bunch of parts.

With that, I give you, the Pittsburgh Penguins.

Already down Evgeni Malkin, their 2009 Conn Smythe winner, it’s now coming in that the Pens will most likely be without captain and NHL poster boy Sidney Crosby.

So, assuming that Mario Lemieux stays up in the owners box, Pittsburgh is all out of super stars. Goalie Marc-Andre Fleury is certainly a very good player, but not someone capable of winning a series by himself.

On the either side of the puck, the Lightning is loaded with high-end talent, with the likes of Steven Stamkos, Vincent Lecavalier, and Martin St. Louis. The NHL’s surprise team of 2011 is certainly loaded with offensive firepower, and more than capable of putting pucks in the back of the net.

Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, its best two offensive players are on the shelf. Malkin was a pure sniper, and not only could Crosby light the lamp on his own, but he made his teammates better.

So how can Pittsburgh muster a series win? It certainly won’t be easy, but the Pens might be able to eke out a seven game gutsy series if they grind and work hard. Guys like Jordan Staal and Max Talbot will have to come up big, and most importantly, Fleury will have to stand on his head and keep Tampa’s scorers off the board.

If the Lightning gets on the power play often, Pittsburgh can forget about this series. Too many weapons for Tampa, who was only an average team five-on-five this season. But, on the power play, the Lighting was spectacular, converting on 20 percent of its extra-man chances, tops in the East.

This series had the potential to be a thriller, but without Malkin and Crosby, Pittsburgh’s chances are slim. Can’t imagine Tampa losing this one, Tampa Bay 4, Pittsburgh 2.

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