AFC Playoff Picture

BY IAN TASSO
EDITORIAL. PHOTOS BY AP NEWS

The temperatures are dropping - fast.

And that can only mean one thing: playoff football.

With the postseason quickly approaching, certain teams are vying for position, others are fighting for their playoff lives, and the rest are trying to prove they have what it takes. Where does your team sit?

On a whole different level:

New England Patriots:

Not only do they have what it takes, they are what it takes; the prototype for success. Is there one quarterback you'd rather have in a playoff matchup than Tom Brady? And at home, too? Locking up home-field advantage might have been the worst thing for the AFC. Not good news unless you hail from somewhere between Boston and Maine.

Still, there are a few questions. Can they win sloppy? The game against the Browns showed a distinct weakness with this team – if Brady is off, this team sheds a little skin.

Also, second half defense. The past two games, New England has shown they can close out games – but early on this year, they had trouble slamming the door shut. Which Patriots’ defense will we see down the stretch?

In the clear:

Pittsburgh Steelers:

They have a lot going for them. For one, in the middle of January, there might not be another team you’d be more afraid to play: a pummeling defense, a genius for a coordinator, and Troy Polamalu.

When that temperature plummets, and teams resort to grounding, pounding and defense, the Steelers are your team, and have been that team for the last decade.

Still, their offense goes through spurts of weakness that can really hurt in the postseason. Their defense might be able to stomach most…but all?

And also, the matchup difficulties. If they stroll in to New England for an AFC Conference title, the Patriots will be licking their chops: Brady eats Pittsburgh alive. He’s the best in the business at pre-play reads, and the Steelers’ patented zone-blitzing becomes rendered useless. If you’re the Steelers, you’re crossing your fingers someone slips up New England.

Or else it could be another short postseason run.

Fighting for position:

Baltimore Ravens

They must show consistency to make an impact.

They have all the tools to win in January and February – a smart, skilled defense, and an offense full of weapons.

Still, I see shades of the 2006 New England Patriots in them – an aging core group of defenders that let games slip away from them late; think the Houston game.

That being said, they still have those tools. An offense with names like Ray Rice, Anquan Boldin and Todd Heap is enough to keep defensive coordinators sleepless.

But it still all falls on the shoulders of Joe Flacco. Can he carry them? Color me not convinced.

New York Jets:

Oh boy.

The most talked about story before the season looks to be the most talked about story after the season as well. The Jets exploded onto the 2010-11 season, downing the Patriots in week two, and grabbing a hold of first place in the AFC East until week 13.

But now, they’re floundering. Their ground-and-pound offense has evaporated, and it’s all fallen on Mark Sanchez’s “still not ready to carry it all” shoulders.

The defense has their own concerns too – the secondary looks weak, Darrelle Revis doesn’t look like Darrelle Revis, and Rex Ryan may be losing his edge. Will a few crushing losses (Dolphins/Patriots) be enough to steer this team completely off course?

I don’t think so – but they need to straighten things out. The offense is still explosive enough to make some noise, and the defense has the potential to be a nightmare in the playoffs. But the glaring red light here is that if it all falls on Mark Sanchez – and teams will do all they can to make sure it does – New York could be in serious trouble.

Much like they are now.

Kansas City Chiefs:

This might be the most under-the-radar team heading into the postseason. They’ve made absolutely no noise, but have a sound coach, a great system, a potent offense and a solid defense.

That being said, against the better teams in the NFL, they struggle. They fell to the Colts earlier in the year, and then the very next week were out-shot by the Texans.

Their schedule has been very easy thus far, featuring divisional games against the Raiders and Broncos, and inter-conference games against the NFC West (self explanatory.)

Still, they lead the NFL in rushing yards (165.4/game), and if they get a lead, they’re the one team that has shown they can hold it. But the question is – can they get that lead?

So far, they’ve shown they have the ability to rise above that question. But playoff football is an entirely different animal. Something tells me they’ll find that out very quickly.

Because when teams cue in on that rushing attack, it all falls into Matt Cassel and the 29^th overall pass offense’s hands. We’ve heard that before huh? It happened with Priest Holmes, it happened with Larry Johnson – will we be fooled once again into thinking the run-heavy Chiefs can sprint through January?

On the bubble:

Jacksonville Jaguars:

Where did this come from?

Seriously, before the season, if anyone had picked a “surprise” AFC South team to take the division from the Colts, it would have been the Texans. Shows what we know.

But this team has so many glaring weaknesses; it’s hard for me to envision them as anything more than a first-round-exit. They rank 28^th in pass defense, and 18^th in rush defense. That means they rank in the second half of the NFL in overall defense: not good heading into the postseason.

On top of that, they’re 29^th overall in passing offense. So if you shut down their run, you shut down the Jags. And they can’t really stop you from scoring either. Yikes. No pressure Maurice.

Indianapolis Colts:

And here’s the scariest team on the bubble. For one reason and (really) one reason only: Peyton Manning.

I guarantee if you give the Patriots, Steelers, Ravens and Jets a call, the one thing they’ll agree on is that they don’t want to see Mr. Manning in the postseason. Because he’s shown again and again that no matter who he has as his supporting cast, he has the ability to take you down.

That being said, that supporting cast is especially weak this year. No Dallas Clark, no Austin Collie, no Bob Sanders, no running game and a defense that is paper-thin. And on top of that, at times, Manning himself has looked very spotty, as if he’s trying too hard to do it all himself. But can you blame him?

The biggest question here is will this team make the playoffs. They need some outside help, and Sunday’s clash with the Jaguars has gone from a meaningless game to a highlighted event in a matter of months.

Because if they do make the playoffs, mark my words – Manning won’t go down without a fight.

San Diego Chargers

Ah, the Chargers.

Seems we’re at this point every year, aren’t we?

They have such an explosive team – are atop the NFL in overall defense, and are pretty damn close in overall offense (3^rd in passing, 14^th in rushing.) Yet right now, they stand on the outside looking in at the playoff race.

How is that even possible? A few reasons.

One, they make way too many mental mistakes. At times, it almost seems like they’re trying to find ways to lose games.

And another reason is coaching. You have to wonder how much of that stems from the top – and how much Norv Turner’s job really is at stake this year. Because if the Chargers don’t make the playoffs, you have to think Turner might be on his way out.

But even if they do, you begin to wonder if teams would really be afraid to see the Bolts in the middle of January.

Why? They have potential, yes. But playoff football is all about limiting your mistakes. The good teams let you hang around until you lose the game for yourself. Do we really think the Chargers have the capacity to avoid that pitfall?