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Saturday, December 4, 2010

An Early Christmas Present for Red Sox Nation

EDITORIAL. PHOTOS BY AP NEWS

Few things wake me up at 10-o’clock in the morning on a Saturday. 

A text message from my father that reads “OMG Gonzalez to Sox” is one of those things.

Few notes here. One, the fact that this message was the only thing in my inbox on a Saturday morning is nothing short of good news. This means no felonies were committed last night. Or at least nothing big. Or nothing big that I was directly involved with.

Two, I was in my own bed. That might not mean much to most people, but to a college student, given the alternatives -- my own couch, someone else’s couch, my floor, someone else’s floor, the sidewalk, or not at all -- this is quite a moral victory.

And lastly, at 10am, a sentence like “OMG Gonzalez to Sox” can be enough to ensure heart-failure. Or at the very least, an immediate return to unconsciousness. My dad should realize these things and hold off on texts like that until at least past noon.

Alas, the old man had not, and now I was stuck in a pickle.

More than anything, I was shocked for multiple reasons. First off, my eyes were actually open at 10:00 in the morning, and that doesn’t happen too often. Second, I had both my socks on - which may not sound like much to you, but that’s usually the first indication that I didn’t have to run away from anything the night before. Third, my dad had just used “OMG” in a text - pretty hilarious in and of itself. And lastly, Adrian Gonzalez might actually be headed to Boston.

After a minute of weighing my options, I then closed my eyes and went back to sleep. That’s a lot of pressure to deal with at ten in the morning. I’d handle those questions at a much more comfortable wake up time. Like noon. Or 12:30.

Or 1:30.

So here’s what I got for you. Adrian Gonzalez is 99% headed to Boston, barring a failed physical -- or a “Sturm,” as I like to call it -- and this is what it all means:

Who is he?

A former number one overall pick in 2000 by the Florida Marlins, Gonzalez was plucked right out of high school - along with a $3 million signing bonus -- making him the first infield position player taken first overall since Alex Rodriguez in 1993.


Unfortunately, Gonzalez was plagued by injuries early on in his career, and after a rather severe wrist injury, Florida traded him to the Texas Rangers in 2003, in the deal that sent Ugeth Urbina to the Fish.

One season later, Gonzo made his debut for the Rangers - playing in 16 games for Texas in 2004, and 43 more in 2005.

After the 2005 season, Gonzo was then shipped over to San Diego in exchange for Adam Eaton and Akinori Otsuka -- one of the few glaring mistakes the Rangers’ front office has made in recent history. Keep in mind, that’s a front office that has brought over players like Cliff Lee, Josh Hamilton and Vladamir Guerrero, and groomed Nelson Cruz, Ian Kinsler, Michael Young and Colby Lewis into top-level studs.

Unfortunately -- or fortunately if you’re a Red Sox fan -- they dropped the ball with the Mexican -- American first baseman, who was born in San Diego, Cal. but was raised for 12 years in Mexico.

In his first season with San Diego, Gonzalez took over the starting first baseman job after Ryan Klesko went down with an injury. Since then, Gonzo has led the Padres in home runs in all five seasons, RBIs in all but one, and average in all but two.  


Why you should be excited:

The Sox front office has been after this man for the last three years. And when I say after him, I mean after him like a pack of wild dogs after Michael Vick wearing Milkbone underpants.

Ruthless doesn’t even begin to describe how ruthless Theo has been in his pursuit of this guy. The Red Sox rumor-mills have been clogged to the rafters with the name “Gonzalez,” and only now does it actually mean something for Sox fans

This guy is the whole package. He can hit: both for power and for average. He can field. He’s never a problem in the clubhouse.  He’s the model of consistency: only once over the past five seasons has he not topped 30 homers (25 in 2006, his first full year with the Padres), and only once in the past four has he not crossed the 100-mark in RBI (2009, where he hit 99).

On top of that, he also still has a lot of productive years in him. Unlike Victor Martinez, who the Sox let skip away to Detroit, Gonzalez has at minimum 6-8 years of twine-clubbing baseball and leather-dusting defense at the corner.

I kid you not when I say this: this kid is the entire package. He’s the closest thing you’re going to get to Albert Pujols without mortgaging your entire payroll.

And he’s the best hitter the Red Sox will have featured in their lineup since Manny Ramirez skipped town for Los Angeles. 


Why San Diego gave him up:

If he’s so good, why did the Padres give him up? 

A few different reasons.

The biggest one of course, is that they finally saw the light at the end of the tunnel, with only nine calendar months separating the Padres and absolutely nothing in return if Gonzo leaves via free-agency -- which, he would, because they have about enough money to throw at him as I do. Which is about five bucks. And a button. Maybe some cookies. But not too many though.

Second, after exercising the first-baseman’s option for 2011, The Fathers made one thing crystal clear: Gonzalez was on his way out -- either now, or by the deadline.

And lastly, that shoulder surgery -- regardless of his presumed 100% recovery -- is a bit of a red flag.

This flag waves extra-high for the Padres, an organization that right now, really only has one trading chip in their possession -- Gonzalez. The mere thought that he might only pop 25 this season with around 70 batted in if that shoulder issue lingers is terrifying for that front office, and this kid’s value isn’t getting any higher next year.


Why the Sox pulled the trigger:

Lot’s of reasons. A) they have the farm products. B) they need the power. C) Beltre is asking for way too much money. D) If they didn’t grab him, the Yankees probably would have. And E) He's Theo's wet-dream. An OBP monster that makes J.D. Drew look like Richie Sexson.

Sure, they gave up Casey Kelley, their number-one ranked prospect, and their number-three and six in addition, but as far as payout goes, this was about as good as it was going to get for the Sox.

The price isn’t anything so steep that it should jump out to Sox fans, especially when you consider what the Yankees gave up for Curtis Granderson: Austin Jackson, the best prospect they’ve had since Derek Jeter. 

When you put those two deals side by side, the Sox look like the Bruins and the Padres look like the Leafs.

Which reminds me: thank you, Phil Kessel.


What you can expect from him:

It’s only going to get better.

The fact that Gonzo has been able to slug like he has in San Diego is a miracle in and of itself. The man has topped 40-100 nearly every year in Petco Park -- ESPN.com’s 29th ranked “power” field -- and now heads to Fenway Park, which ranks eighth on that same list.

Friendly Fenway is clearly only going to get better. But how much better?

Well, for one, the lineup will help. Coming to Boston means pitchers will now be forced to attack Gonzalez, meaning more strikes, more hittable pitches, and as a result, more runs coming off his bat.

Last year, Gonzalez was second in the Majors last year with 35 intentional walks -- second only to Albert Pujols. This number will only decrease in a lineup like Boston’s, which will no doubt force pitchers to keep Gonzo off the bases, as he’ll likely be sandwiched in between the likes of Pedroia, Youkilis, Ortiz, Crawford and/or Werth, depending on how the lineup and the rest of the off-season shakes out.

I’m sure if you ask Adrian, he’d much prefer those guys over David Eckstein, Ryan Ludwick, Miguel Tejada and Yorvit Torreabla.

My thoughts: somewhere between 45 and 50 dingers, about 145 runs batted in, and somewhere around a .280 -- all career highs, except the average.

Don’t be surprised if that average dips even lower though, as a result of the the adjustment he's going to have to make from the gap-heavy hitter he was in San Diego to the Monster-finding, short-porch-using one he'll have to be in Fenway.

Also, the competition -- don't forget, the rotations the Yankees and Rays will throw at the left-hander 36 times a year will be a lot tougher to handle than the ones the Dodgers and Diamondbacks did.

Still, he’s no stranger to great pitching. Over his five years with San Diego, Gonzo has dug in the box against the World Champion Giants’ big three of Lincecum, Cain and Sanchez 134 times. In those at bats, he’s posted a .262 career average with five home runs and 19 RBI.

Not too shabby.

And for those of you that might be thinking Sanchez may have been the numbers booster in that stat-egory, it was actually Cain, who Gonzalez hit at a .321 clip against, with four dingers and 13 RBI.




Why it might not work:

Now, I’m as big a Red Sox fan as the next guy, but being a journalist, I have to look at all angles. Sure, the move's great. But why might it not work?

Simple. Just take a look at Renteria. Or Bay. Or any of the other six million guys the Sox have brought into their huge market that have plummeted like the Colts without Dallas Clark -- or the "wherever the hell Randy Moss goes" with Randy Moss.

It’s no secret that Boston is a unique market. Unique in the fact that, more Sox fans care about a game in April than Rangers fans care about a game in September. It’s just the harsh truth. This city is crazy about their sports; especially when you consider the fan-base the Sox cover, which spans about three states in every direction.

That means there are just as many screaming fans in May as there are in October. And some players love that. Guys like Josh Beckett, Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz loves that. 
They came over from rather small fan bases -- Minnesota, Cleveland, and Florida -- and fed off that emotion like Hungry Hungry Hippos on steroids. Quite literally, in Papi's case. (Too soon?)


But some players don’t. Some players hate the fact that if you give up five runs in three innings in April, you get crucified. Some players hate that going 0-4 on a Wednesday afternoon in June will put you on the front page for two days. Some players can’t stand the pressure. See: Edgar Renteria.

Some players love it. Some players don’t. It’s impossible to tell which one Gonzalez will be -- and don’t listen to anyone who tells you either direction, unless they know the guy personally. 

This is just one we’re going to have to wait and see with. 

Also, that shoulder bugs me a bit. Injuries always do. I'm no doctor, but the Red Sox have always been careful about injuries -- remember how they balked at the Santana deal? 

Now look at him. He's as useful as a sack of bricks.

The Sox must know he's fine. Because if he isn't...



The Verdict:

This one’s a huge win for the Sox.

They get one of the few guys out there with absolute 30/100/.280 year-in-year-out bottom line, and with a lot of great years ahead of him. 

Not only that, but barring a gross -- and I mean gross -- overpayment, they’ll have enough cash lying around afterwards to grab either Jayson Werth or Carl Crawford, with some still left over.

This acquisition fills a huge power hole in the Sox lineup, giving them a guy that will crank in that cleanup spot like we haven’t seen since the Ramirez days.

Bottom line is this makes the Sox serious contenders for not only next year, but the next few years to come.

And by serious contenders, I mean a team you should be surprised if they don’t take home an AL pennant at least four out of the next six seasons. With this rotation, and the addition of a bat like Gonzalez, this Sox team is shoulder-to-shoulder with both the Yankees and Rangers in the American League. 

And grabbing a guy like either Werth or Crawford puts them a few arms length’s ahead.

Even using my journalistic non-bias, it’s tough to find a loophole in this deal that makes you think twice. Really, the only downside to this deal is that Beltre’s the odd man out. I kind of liked him.

But unless you’re Adrian Beltre, I’m sure you won’t lose too much sleep over it. Unless you count me losing those precious minutes of shut-eye this morning.

And even if you are Adrian Beltre, I’m sure you’ll be alright. You’ve got a nice $40-50 million deal waiting for you in Los Angeles. I don’t feel too bad.

Get excited Red Sox nation. This is the guy you’ve been waiting for.

A Manny Ramirez bat with a Mark Teixeira glove and a Jason Bay attitude.

Cue the Duckboats? I'm thinking maybe.

And if either Carl Crawford or Jayson Werth are in red socks within the next few weeks, I’m thinking bingo. Troy Brown style.


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