by Tom Nieradka Its tough to believe that half of the NFL season is almost gone. Heading into week eight, only three undefeated teams remain. The Colts, Broncos, and Saints are each a perfect 6-0 and have run into few issues so far in their quests for dominance. By this point each team seems to be a lock for the playoffs and primed for a deep run, however these teams are not without their flaws. So how will each of these squads fare the rest of the way, and what weaknesses could eventually be exploited?
Its time for a reality check.
Indianapolis Colts
The Good: Peyton Manning is still their quarterback, and as long as he is healthy they are a playoff team. Manning leads the NFL with a quarterback rating of 114, is tied for second in the NFL with 15 touchdowns, and has thrown for over 300 yards in five of the six games the Colts have had so far. Backing up Manning (or rather staying in front of him) is his offensive line, which has only surrendered two sacks all season. Also going for the Colts is the continued dominance of Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, as well as other emerging threats such as Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie. Manning always has spread the ball around quite a bit, and as long as he has great receivers to catch it the Colts will remain one of the best offences in football.
Also looking on the plus side this year is the Indianapolis defense, and the tandem of the spin-move expert pass rusher Dwight Freeny and a now healthy (hopefully) hard-hitting safety Bob Sanders. This bodes well for the Colts ‘New-Endland-2007esque’ plan of running up the score and forcing team to pass against their above average secondary.
The Bad: If the Colts have a decent passing defense, their weakness on the non-Peyton side of the ball is their rush defense. They are allowing 112 rush yards per game, which is not stellar but when considering the backs that they have faced so far (Maurice Jones-Drew, Ronnie Brown, Steven Jackson and Chris Johnson) is kind of impressive even.
However if the Colts do ever run into offensive troubles and teams can pound the ball in on them, there could be some trouble brewing; and this is exactly what happened in weeks one and two against Jacksonville and Miami. The Colts were unable to create early leads, and both games came down to the wire. Jones-Drew and Brown generated the ONLY touchdowns for their respective teams, and yet the Colts only won the two games by a combined total of six points. Look out for a loss is the Colts face a strong rushing team with a decent passing offense to back it up.
Prediction: 14-2. The Colts have a relatively cushy schedule with the notable exception of weeks 9-12, where they face Houston twice, the Pats and the Ravens. Look for them to take their only two losses in that span.
Denver Broncos
The Good: The dark horse team of this group, Denver has come out of the off-season drama to be the surprise-undefeated team. And the most surprising part has been their defense, which has allowed only 66 points through six games thus far, good for first in the NFL. Linebacker Elvis Dumervil leads the league with 10 sacks, and the secondary has looked great against potent air attacks such as those of the Patriots, Bengals, Chargers, and Cowboys (who for some reason would not stop throwing at Champ Bailey).
Whatever defensive coordinator Mike Nolan is doing, it’s working. On the other side of the ball the tandem of running backs Correll Buckhalter and rookie Knowshon Moreno continue to impress to a degree, and it is looking more and more like grabbing Moreno in the draft was a good choice.
The Bad: Not that its bad, but the weakness of this team is without a question the offense. Kyle Orton, while serviceable to this point, is a far cry from Jay Cutler. Marshall is a great playmaker, but off-field issues and a bad attitude have hurt him in the past. Orton has also had trouble getting the ball to Denver’s other offensive playmaker Eddie Royal, who after a 980 yard rookie season has only 148 yards so far. He has proven his worth on special teams many times over, but if Denver is going to keep winning, the ball has to go to their playmakers.
What they have been doing is working fine to this point, but unfortunately Denver has yet to face a premier defense. Oddly enough the best that they have gone up against thus far from a statistical look is the Bengals, whom they only managed 12 points against and probably should have lost the game had it not been for a sure Cincy interception that turned into a touchdown for Brandon Stokley.
Prediction: 12-4 The Broncos schedule gets a lot tougher in the weeks ahead. The dominant defenses of Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and the Giants will pose a big threat to Denver’s shaky offense, and the week 14 and 16 match-ups against the Colts and Eagles will be interesting if all three teams are still in their own playoff races. Still, for a team was ranked 27th in the preseason by ESPN, twelve wins is an amazing feat.
New Orleans Saints
The Good: Much like the Colts in a sense, their offensive is among the best in the league and the defense has stepped up out of nowhere. But first and foremost the Saints are a pass first offense led by one of the best in the business, Drew Brees. Brees excels not because of his size or arm strength, but because his quick thinking and his fast release. Perhaps more than any other quarterback Brees can avoid the blitz by getting rid of the ball moments after it is snapped.
He has pinpoint accuracy and the Saints love to spread the field, a deadly combination for even the best defenses (see their 44 point domination of the Giants #1 pass defense). And unlike some offenses, which rely on a premier giant of a receiver to move the ball, Brees spreads it around to a smattering of different offensive weapons such as Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, and Jeremy Shockey to name a few – all of which demand extra attention by opposing defenses. Also, in a departure from last season the Saints have a, dare I say it, good defense. Anchored by safety Darren Sharper, who has three picks for touchdowns through six games, New Orleans finally has a defense to match (kind of) their offense.
The Bad: The Saints still remain a relatively one-dimensional offense. Between running backs Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell, the Saints have only managed just over 600 yards so far. And looking at their Miami game, Miami succeeded at getting to Brees, forcing turnovers throughout the first half. When a defense can sit on either the pass or the run it can get tough for an offense to score. And though the Saints were able to bounce back in the second half, there is still a little cause for concern here.
If we look back at the Jets game in week 4, the Saints only managed to score 10 offensive points because the Jets were pressuring Brees to a ridiculous extent. Also a bit of concern here is the Saints run defense, which despite only allowing 92 yards per game thus far has a bit to be worried about if they can’t get a lead early. The Dolphins couldn’t hold the Saints off, but other more balanced (and more talented) teams might be able to.
Prediction: 15-1. Not sure if this is a 16-0 worthy team, but their schedule is very easy from here on out. They face the Falcons twice and the Patriots once, and if they don’t drop one of those 16-0 is very possible.
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