Eastern Promises

by Tom Nieradka

Editorial. Photos by AP News

Thus far the AFC East has not been much of a surprise. The Patriots (5-2) sit in first, trailed closely by the Jets (4-4), Dolphins (3-4), and Bills (3-5). But how is this division going to stack up the rest of the way? The Patriots offense finally seems to be clicking, but can they keep it up? Will rookie mistakes by Mark Sanchez keep the Jets firmly seated in a place of mediocrity? Can the Fins circus-style ground attack make up for the apparent lack of a quarterback? And can the Bills impressive pass defense negate the effects of a disappointing offense and vulnerability to the run? Only time will tell, but at the halfway point of the NFL season now is as good of a time as any for an updated prediction.

New England Patriots (5-2)

Heading into the bye the Pats were looking like the team to beat in the AFC East. Their offense was finally clicking like it had in ’07 (maybe not that well), and they were able to embarrass the Bucs and the Titans by allowing only 7 points while scoring 94 in those two games combined. Brady is finally connecting with Moss and Welker, and seems to finally be shaking off the rust from the season that time forgot. And while still not a balanced team the combination of Laurence Maroney, Kevin Faulk, and the Law Firm (BenJarvus Green-Ellis) seem to be enough of a threat to keep most teams on edge.

The Pats will be getting better with each passing week on offense, but the question remains if the defense can keep it together. The surging saftey Brandon Merriweather is one of the few things that is keeping the questionable secondary together, and against stronger passing attacks those weaknesses may be exposed.

Prediction: 11-5 Going against the Pats is the tough schedule coming off the bye. Right away they get hit with the surging Dolphins, followed by the Colts, Jets, Saints and then Fins again. The Pats don’t get a real break until week 14 against the Panthers, and then from there on out a relatively winnable schedule. The Pats will have a hard time with the prolific passing assaults of the Saints and Colts, and though the Pats can play in a shoot out with the best of them it is still unclear whether or not the defense can hold up against the top offenses in the league.

New York Jets (4-4)

The Jets just cannot seem to beat the Dolphins. After the tandem of Ronnie Brown and QB Chad Henne made the Jets defense look silly three weeks earlier, Rex Ryan and the Jets defense went back to the chalkboard for week eight. Result: New York held Ronnie Brown to 27 yards on 11 carries, allowd Henne to hit pay-dirt only once through the air and all the while put up 25 points on offense. Sounds like a recipe for victory, right?

Wrong. This time the Dolphins found a recipe for success on special teams in the form of WR Tedd Ginn who returned two kickoffs for touchdowns. Mark Sanchez took the heat for the last loss, but this time it was on the defense and special teams who were not able to perform. Coach Rex Ryan’s defense has not been the Jets’ biggest concern this season however (it has preformed very well against the Saints, Texans, and Pats).

The biggest question mark is the one that goes by Sanchez. The Jets cannot win if Sanchez turns over the ball like he has been doing. He lost fumbles and has thrown picks that have cost the Jets games against the Saints, Dolphins, and Bills. With the defense playing at such a high level and the Jets remaining one of the top rushing teams in the NFL, Sanchez is the wildcard that will either make or break the Jets.

Prediction: (8-8) At this point in the season the Jets just don’t seem to have the makings of a playoff team. Sanchez is hitting usual rookie bumps in the road, the Dolphins have made apparent the Jets poor special teams play, and questionable coaching decisions by first year head coach Rex Ryan are holding the Jets in check.

New York has a middle of the road schedule the rest of the way through with tough games against the Pats and then closing out the season against the Falcons, Colts, and Bengals. Splitting the games the rest of the way looks possible if they can avoid making the same mistakes they have against bad teams like Buffalo and Carolina.

Miami Dolphins (3-4)

Losing veteran QB Chad Pennington does not seem to have slowed down the Dolphins very much. Their game this season has been and will continue to be based on controlling the clock through a relentless rushing attack quarterbacked (sometimes) by Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. Though it is still up in the air whether or not their Wildcat offense is a gimmick, it has garnered at least some success thus far. The Wildcat works for the Dolphins because they do not have a great QB to get them down the field, so they do their best to get the ball into the hands of their best players.

On the other side of the ball their defense has been nothing special. They have been able to get some decent pressure on quarterbacks managing 21 sacks on the year, but only five interceptions (three came against Trent Edwards). If the Dolphins are going to be a serious team, they need to start forcing turnovers more often and prove that the defense can hold their ground against the best the NFL has to offer.

Prediction: (7-9) A tough 0-3 start has left them in a bit of a hole. In their final eight games they get the Pats twice, as well as the Titans, Texans, and Steelers in the last three weeks. Their schedule does not look very bright against some of the better passing attacks in the NFL, and if the Dolphins get forced to throw the ball they are in some big trouble.

Buffalo Bills (3-5)

Coming into the season one would have though that the Bills strong point would have been on offense. However the acquisition of Terrell Owens is not paying dividends thus far, and the offense is looking like one of the worst in football.

Making up for that lack is a surprisingly good pass defense, which aside from picking off Mark Sanchez six times has held Drew Brees to less than 200 yards and picked off Matt Schaub twice (while not allowing a TD to either). However the rushing defense is not nearly as good, giving up three TDs to Houston backup Ryan Moats (doubling his career total) and allowing three more ground TDs to the Dolphins.

Prediction: (4-12) Winning five is actually probably a generous prediction for the Bills. Coming off their bye they get hit with Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Ronnie Brown, and Thomas Jones is four straight games. And then after their only real winnable game in Kansas City they get to face the very potent offenses of the Pats, Falcons, and Colts. Unfortunately the inaugural season of TO in Buffalo is not looking very good at all.