BY EVAN SPORER
EDITORIAL. PHOTOS BY AP NEWS
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
Top 10 Storylines: 2011
According to the Chinese calendar, 2010 was the year of the tiger. Boy did someone mess that up. Anyway, without dwelling too much on the past year of sports, here are 10 major storylines as we hop into 2011, or, the year of the rabbit.
1. NBA and NFL Labor Agreements
Before any 2011 NFL or NBA storylines can be addressed, what first needs to be tabled are the statuses of collective futures of those leagues.
As of now, there is no labor agreement in place between the player’s association and the owners of both leagues.
What could that mean potentially? A lockout… or lockouts.
Right now, neither the NFL nor NBA are even remotely close to signing a labor agreement, with both sides very far apart. I don’t think that average sports fan has really processed what this could mean, or the huge effect this could potentially have.
These are billion dollar corporations that employ mass amounts of people. So forget about the athletes. They’ll survive without their salaries for a year. But think about all the unemployment that would accompany a lockout. Those who work for the league would be left jobless, and that could be catastrophic.
Also, imagine those months in-between the baseball season without football or basketball.
Major factors in getting these deals done? For the NFL, if the owners want to move to an 18-game schedule, the league will have to remain un-capped as players’ will expect some higher numbers on their paychecks.
The NBA wants to cut contract length, and decrease both salary length and guaranteed money. The players… not too happy. There has to be a middle ground, right?
As of now, things are not looking good for David Stern or Roger Goodell.
2. Heat Big Three
This would probably be the number one story, if we knew there would be basketball played in 2011-2012. But, for now, the Heat are only focused on this season, as they try to take down the Celtics in the East, and attempt to dethrone the two-time defending champion Lakers.
The Heat are starting to come together. And one aspect of this team many people did not consider when it was formed this past summer is that this is a defensive juggernaut. Despite the fact that they can fill up the score sheet, it is the way the Heat play defensively that will propel their finals chances. Many people felt a big win over the Lakers on Christmas-day was meaningless. But I’m not buying it. If the path through the finals does go through Los Angeles, and the Heat are a part of it, these players know they can go into the building and get a win.
I don’t expect an MVP out of South Beach this season, but I do expect a title.
3. Phillies Fine Four
This may be the best rotation on paper. Ever.
Obviously, until things play out, there is no crowning the Phillies’ four aces. But to put things into perspective, barring injury, these guys (Halladay, Lee, Oswalt and Hamels) will take the ball 80% of the time for Charlie Manuel’s team… bad news for the National League.
The thing I found intriguing about this move is that a fourth starter really does you no good in the postseason, which is where the Phillies were headed even before acquiring Cliff Lee. Obviously this team will be judged on its playoff success, but one of these guys (probably Oswalt or Hamels) will have to swallow their pride and head to the pen’ come playoff time. And anything short of a World Series championship will be considered a disappointment.
This team will win 100 games in the regular season. There is no doubt in my mind. But like I said, it’s how this team plays in October that will mold its reputation.
One more thought. When the Mariners won 116 games in 2001, in a much tougher AL West (compared to the 2011 NL East), the Mariners top four starters combined for 70 wins. This may be bold, but I am predicting 74-78 wins for the Philly big four. What does that mean? Well, I’m not going to say they’ll challenge the 01’ Mariners’ record, but expect big things.
4. Melo in Limbo?
Carmelo Anthony will be traded before the February trading deadline. Here is why.
“I'm not Chris Bosh," Anthony reportedly said. "We're not the same person. What I do will be straight up. Management knows that."
What does that mean? Well, Chris Bosh spent the entire 2010 wavering on his desire to return to Toronto. In the end, Bosh left, and the Raptors were left with diddlysquat. Carmelo is flat out telling Nuggets management that he will exercise his early termination option in 2011 if the Nuggets have not moved him. So, expect Melo to be on the move, and pronto.
This is a huge story. Why? This is one of the purest scorers in the league, and a great competitor. His desire to get better on the defensive end speaks to his desire to win (and also his desire not to get moved to the So where does Melo go? I’m going to break this down into two categories: the New York Knicks, and teams not named the Knicks willing to rent Melo for half the season. More specifically, I’m looking at the Rockets and Mavericks, teams that think Melo may put them over the edge and give them a shot to win a title this season.
For the Rockets, trading Yao Ming may give them the young pieces to send over to Denver to acquire Melo. For the Mavericks, it’s less about reloading and dumping, because owner Mark Cuban is convinced that he can convince Melo to stay in Dallas.
What this really comes down to? Carmelo will be living in New York by next year (assuming we’re still playing basketball).
The question is, does he move in during February, or over the summer.
5. The Trials of Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens
These stories lost a ton of steam when both trials were postponed to 2011, but believe me, as these two court dates approach, they will receive national and global media attention.
When Barry Bonds and Rogers Clemens stood under oath before a House committee and testified that they never used performance-enhancing drugs, the fight against steroids was taken to a new level. These cases are simple. The case against Bonds was built on documents seized during a federal raid of Burlingame steroids lab. The issue now is the validity of said documents, which Bonds’ defense will surely refute.
Clemens’ case will be built largely on the testimony of former trainer Brian McNamee. McNamee will testify eyewitness (and firsthand) accounts of injecting Clemens with steroids, which may be hard to refute. Other testimonies are expected from former teammates Andy Pettitte and Jason Giambi.
From a historical standpoint, this will only add another chapter to one of the ugliest controversies baseball has ever faced. What tarnished the league’s image throughout the 90’s and the early 2000’s will now be reopened.
And just when it seemed like the year of the pitcher in 2010 finally detracted the attention away from steroids, the issue will only be back at the forefront o when these two all-time greats (until proven guilty by a court of law) take the stand.
Guilty verdict(s) will seriously bring into question any baseball accomplishments over the last 20 years, if they have not already been challenged.
6. The NFL’s Head Case
I’ll keep the head puns to a minimum, but would like to start by saying Roger Goodell has a major headache to deal with (I’m done, seriously).
Player safety has been a huge league initiative for years, with this year taking those attempts to a new level. The message from the league has been clear; do not engage players in the head region. But referees, due to pressure from the league, have been reaching for the yellow flag on anything that comes close to an illegal hit.
This is a very unique issue. On the one hand, concussions are up a whopping 20% across the league this year. That stat may be a bit misleading, as concussions are being looked at more closely, and recorded more meticulously, but the number still stands.
On the other hand, it is painful to watch defenders get flagged for 15 yards for a clean hit, and then lose $25,000 on Tuesday when they get a FedEx envelope from Mr. Goodell.
I think one of the main problems with this issue is referees are asked being asked to judge something that takes place in a split second at very high speeds. I do not think referees should be expected to monitor hits to head in accompaniment with their normal duties.
Just like the league added an extra official in the backfield this season, I think an official needs to be added to monitor the ends of plays. This would allow referees to focus on their normal duties, and not have to worry about missing a dirty hit.
Also, I think the old facemask rules should be applied to these illegal hits to the head. Instead of blindly tacking on 15 yards to every hit, give five yards for the unintentional, lesser hits, and 15 for those major, concussion-causing blasts.
Not bad, eh. But who knows if that would even work. No matter what, expect some change into how the league handles these affairs, and expect huge player opposition.
7. BCS Busted? Conference Realignment
The old saying, “if you cant’ beat em’, join em,’” has never been more applicable.
With the likes of Boise State, Utah, and TCU fed up with a questionable BCS (Bowl Championship Series) system, and other teams seeing an opportunity to rake in some extra cash, it’s time to play musical chairs.
Starting next season, TCU will join the Big East, Boise State will join the Mountain West (and Nevada will follow in 2012), Colorado and Utah will join the Pacific-10 and Nebraska will join the Big Ten.
To be completely fair, who can blame most of these teams? This year, TCU did all they could. They won every game on their schedule, and became the eighth team all time to finish undefeated and not win a national championship.
But some aspects of this story simply do not add up. The BCS’ argument against holding a championship playoff is that it would make the season too long for student athletes, and would force them to travel too much.
Travel too much? Then how do you explain allowing TCU (a Texas university) accept an invitation to play in the Big East? Talk about extra travel, TCU will be forced to go to the East coast every-other week.
But this conference realignment may silence all BCS quarrels for the time being. But it also may expose some mid-major teams as being weak compared to the country’s powerhouses. Or, it could create super-conferences, and make for great competition.
And keep this in mind; there will always be those who oppose the BCS. So expect more complaints next year no matter what.
8. (Potential) Franchise Relocation
One of those stories that always gets tons of attention, and seemingly for no reason.
Expect that to change starting this year.
First and foremost, it looks like football is coming back to Los Angeles. And soon. With blueprints drawn up in a stadium in downtown LA it won’t take long for the league to approve the move (of probably the Vikings or Jaguars).
Now that the NBA has taken control over the financial unstable New Orleans Hornets, it probably will not be long until the Hornets have a new address also. Could the NBA end up back in Seattle? Could a professional sports franchise make its way into Las Vegas? Or will a dark horse become the nest for these Hornets (if they keep their name).
And of course there’s the NHL. Franchise relocation is always thrown around fervently when NHL rumors are discussed. But with the potential rise of the NHL starting in the fall, and the potential for increased revenue, these rumors may become reality.
Many Canadian cities will surely put in a bid, which will only be bolstered by their huge viewership and support. Quebec will try to reclaim its hockey stake. Gary Bettman has also discussed stationing the NHL in Europe, where there is a large fan base.
Relocation candidates? There have also been murmurs of the New York Islanders being relocated to Kansas City. Phoenix is another city that could lose its NHL franchise.
When the New Orleans Hornets were not shipped off to Oklahoma City, the Thunder struck and showed just how good a basketball market the Hornets missed out on. Don’t expect franchises to pass up the opportunity to take their teams to where the money is.
9. MLB Playoff Expansion
America’s pastime could undergo a makeover… a big makeover.
After the 2010 Winter Meetings, it was learned that no owners or general managers of MLB franchises were opposed to adding another round to the playoffs.
Under this expansion, an additional wild card team would be added to each league, bringing the playoffs up to ten teams in total. The two wild card teams in each league would play in the added playoff round, for the right to advance to the divisional series.
The fact that this idea was met with unanimous support makes it seem more inevitable than hypothetical. Another round of playoffs means more money for the league, with additional tickets sales, ad revenue, and concession sales.
With the newfound success of wild card teams come playoff time in baseball, this is a huge development. Since the wildcard was instated in 1994, nine wildcard teams have made the World Series. Of those nine, four have won.
This new wrinkle would surely add more excitement and intrigue to what sometimes can turn into a bland playoff process.
10. The Rise of the NHL?
Finding an NHL game on your television can sometimes be like finding Waldo… hard, but not impossible.
Well, let’s think about September 2011. The NHL season begins, and potentially, with the exception of the MLB playoffs, is the only major-four sport in progress.
Then, the MLB crowns its champion in November, and the NHL is the only major four sport in progress… until April.
With impending lockouts for both football and basketball, the NHL is looking at its fantasy. Interest around hockey has already been increased with the 2010 Winter Olympics and the addition of the annual Winter Classic.
Watch an old highlight a NHL game from the early 2000’s. The network name in the corner is generally ABC or ESPN. If a lockout does cancel the 2011-2012 football and basketball seasons, major networks will pick up the NHL without a doubt.
And this is a league ready to flourish under the spotlight. This is a young league, with huge star-power, and new innovations. For those who stopped watching hockey after the 2004 lockout, the league has tweaked the rules to increase goal scoring, and the pace of the game.
In case of a lockout (or lockouts), sports fans will have to go somewhere to find the testosterone they crave. What not a better place than a sport that not only allows but encourages grown men to fight? IF the NBA and NFL cannot reach labor agreements, and lockouts ensue, expect the NHL to be the sporting world’s Most Improved Player come next year.
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I'm curious to see how the year plays out of the Phils.I'm optimistic, because we were the best team in the league last year (regular season) and then added a guy like Cliff Lee to the rotation, and now having Oswalt for a full-year.
ReplyDelete97 wins last year, adding a fully year (potential injuries) of Lee and Oswalt is surely at least a 100 wins right?
I'm more concerned about lack of right-handed hitters. And the eventual injuries that plagued us all of last year. (Utley already out)