EDITORIAL. PHOTOS BY AP NEWS
Since I last left you, Daniel Nava has been sent back to the minors, John Lackey has taken a no-hitter into the 8th inning, and both Marco Scutaro and Adrian Beltre have gone deep. Not bad for the first set of predictions.
Then again, Bill Hall continued to make the worst of his $8.5 million a year contract, booting a possible inning-ending double-play, that eventually forced the Sox into an extra-inning loss.
Thanks a lot Bill. This is what I get for sticking up for you. Hey, at least he can play seven other positions, right?
Right...
Well, in any case, I might as well keep rolling while the getting's hot. Four out of five 'aint so bad. Hell, if we're playing baseball rules (and, we are, because I said so), that's an .800 average.
I mean, damn. Move over Teddy Williams, there's a new sheriff in town. Without further ado, here are the final five questions you've all been asking, and the rest of you have been thinking.
Well, in any case, I might as well keep rolling while the getting's hot. Four out of five 'aint so bad. Hell, if we're playing baseball rules (and, we are, because I said so), that's an .800 average.
I mean, damn. Move over Teddy Williams, there's a new sheriff in town. Without further ado, here are the final five questions you've all been asking, and the rest of you have been thinking.
From David Ortiz to the Yankees, all the way to our beloved Dice-K Matsuzaka, I leave no stones unturned.
So let's start turning.
So let's start turning.
5. What can we expect from Big Papi moving forward? Will the Derby effect his swing? (Markus, Boston, MA)
Doubtful.
I know we’ve seen it in years past, specifically with Josh Hamilton two seasons ago, but in reality, this whole “Derby Curse” is just about as believable as the Madden one.
Look, these guys are professional athletes. I’m supposed to buy that they get, what? Tired? After swinging a bat really hard for a few hours? I mean isn’t that their job? Isn’t that what they do before every game they play - all 162 of them?
I understand it’s on a big stage. I understand they swing really hard for a while. And I understand they don’t play Home Run Derby all the time. But…they do. After every batting practice, most teams normally end it with a derby. You might not notice it, but they do. So I apologize, but I don’t buy this curse one bit.
Want to know why Hamilton fizzled out in the second half last season? Because he did. And because that’s what happens to baseball players sometimes. They get hot in the beginning, and cool off later in the season. Was it because of the derby? Doubtful.
Was it because it was his first full season in the majors after being condemned to the minor leagues after drug abuse issues clouded his advancement as an athlete?
Yeah, probably. That sounds a bit more right. And if Ortiz fizzles later this season, want to know what the reasoning will be?
Because he’s a 34-year-old power hitter, who right now, is having a season that not many of us expected from him in the first place. We hoped for it. But realistically, we didn’t expect it. It won’t be because he won the Home Run Derby.
Only, even so, I don’t think that’s going to happen.
I’m in the camp that feels that Ortiz has finally overcome the wrist issues, mental issues, and whatever other behind-closed-doors issues were plaguing him in ‘09. Is he back to the 2005-06 Ortiz (54 HR)? Not even close. That’s why he’s only batting .252 with 18 HR at the halfway mark.
Listen, he’s not the same player anymore. He’s not even close to the same player.
He is what he is – an aging power hitter, who’s losing his power. And for those out there that think he’s “also lost the average stroke,” he really hasn’t.
He’s a career .280 hitter, and up until the All-Star break was batting .263. That’s really not that much of a drop-off, considering the fact that he’s 34 years old, and last season was, well, the guy hit at a sub .200 clip for half the year. I don’t need to tell you what kind of year it was.
What you’re seeing right now from David Ortiz is probably what you’re going to be seeing come October and (hopefully) September: a guy who’s going to teeter between the .240-.260 mark, and probably finish with around 40 dingers.
Don’t expect much less. But don’t expect much more, either.
Even so, .260 and 40 bombs? If you ask me, I’ll take that any day of the week and twice on Sunday from Big Papi.
Especially when you consider last season, he hit just .238 with only 28 long-balls – and the Sox still made the playoffs.
4. Will we see the Sox make a move for help at the deadline? And how likely is it that one of those moves might include Dice-K, who seems to be the Sox weak-link as far as pitching goes? (Courtney, Boston, MA)
Absolutely yes, they will make a move.
Problem is, I don’t think anybody’s looking to pick up Daisuke Matsuzaka’s almost $9 million a year contract, especially at this moment, where he’s locked up until 2013. And considering the Sox shelled out $55 million just to talk to the Japanese sensation, it would seem they’re very inclined just to ride this baby out.
He’s our cross to bear. Everyone’s got one.
As far as the deadline goes though, I mean, sure, they’ll make something happen. This is just the way the Sox are in this day and age; being the powerhouse that they have been the last decade or so, Boston rarely sits put come deadline time, whether they need the help or not.
And oddly enough, this might have been one of those years where they would have been better suited folding their arms in the corner rather than anything else – if it weren’t for the black plague hitting the locker room.
Unfortunately, disaster struck the streaking Sox, who were nearly in the AL East driver seat, when what could best be described as half the AL All-Star team took a trip to the disabled list.
Now simply re-plugging the holes when the likes of Buccholz, Beckett, Pedroia, Martinez, Lowell and Varitek return might not be enough. With the Rays and Yankees both soaring, and the Sox stuck in baseball quicksand, getting back the original 25 from the infirmary might not be enough.
And that’s where the cities of Denver, Phoenix, Toronto, Miami, Kansas City, San Diego and Philadelphia come in.
Now, if the Sox had it their way, the best possible move would be to package some amount of prospects, and probably the oft questionable Jed Lowrie, in exchange for the Yankees and Rays to suffer a similar injury plague that the Sox have so far this season – and to any Yankee fan that says “we have our injuries too, dick,” I say, “shut your face, immediately, before I knock you in it.”
Andy Pettitte, Jorge Posada and Sergio Mitre are in no way equal to, or greater than Pedroia, Varitek, Beckett, Buchholz, Martinez, Hermidia and Lowell. Apologies.
In any case, after doing a little research, it actually turns out you can’t trade for injuries to other teams. This isn’t Magic the Gathering.
So the next realistic solution comes in the form of athletes and arms from the aforementioned seven cities – specifically the names Chris Ianetta, Chris Snyder, Scott Downs, Leo Nunez, David Dejesus, Adrian Gonzalez and Jayson Werth; all of which the Sox have been linked to over the past few weeks. And yes, I said Jayson Werth.
Running down that list quickly, both Ianetta (C, Rockies) and Snyder (C, Diamondbacks) are being sought after by Boston purely for backup catching duties - and anybody expecting a Championship-driven offensive spark from either of them, is either sorely mistaken, or outrageously inebriated. Neither have totaled over 10 home runs so far this season, and neither are batting over .238. Ianetta is however very deft with the glove behind the plate, which is an added plus.
And with Varitek sidelined until at least mid-August, and uncertainly lying ahead as far as the captain’s future in Boston, the fact that both backstops are locked up past 2010 remains an appealing factor for the Red Sox – meaning, if either were dealt for in ‘10, they would already be under contract with the Sox for the following season.
Colorado has also reportedly already rejected a proposed Ianetta for Jed Lowrie deal, putting talks on hold at the moment – but also meaning the Sox are pushing, albeit lightly, to grab one of these two guys.
Nunez (RP, Marlins) and Downs (RP, Blue Jays) meanwhile, appear the most likely on the list to appear in Fenway in the coming weeks, adding much needed depth to a stumbling bullpen.
With Hideki Okajima having his worst statistical season since his debut, and names like Scott Atchison and Ramon Ramirez still finding their way onto the field in close-games, either the fire-balling Nunez (23 SV, 2.72 ERA, 43 K/39.2 IP) or the ever-consistent Downs (2.52 ERA, 1.02 WHIP), would both be welcomed with open arms to the Sox.
Personally, I’d rather see Nunez. That being said, he’d probably be the most difficult to pry away, seeing as he’s just a ripe 26 years old.
As for the final three names I mentioned, Dejesus (OF, Royals), Gonzalez (1B, Padres), and Werth (OF, Phillies), this is where you’re going to see the punch for a championship. Every year, teams look for that missing piece, the Orlando Cabrera that’s going to put them over the top in the playoff race.
These are the names that punch is going to come from. And they’re also the ones likely to be moved in exchange for the big-name prospects like Lars Anderson and Michael Bowdon. Remember – you have to spend money to make money.
In Dejesus (.320, 5 HR, 37 RBI), the Sox would get a way over .300 hitter who scouts have always believed is one of the premier top-of-the-lineup run scorers in the league. Unfortunately, he’s been buried in that Kansas City organization his entire career.
The Sox would love to see him as a depth-filler and an insurance policy as Ellsbury’s injury continues to raise eyebrows. And he’s definitely a guy that could grow on Red Sox nation, and fast – does a lot of things pretty right, and doesn’t do much wrong.
Gonzalez (.293, 20 HR, 60 RBI) meanwhile, is the twine-mashing first-basemen that Sox fans have dreamt about for the last two seasons. Unfortunately, despite my best wishes, it again doesn’t look like the year Boston will reel him in. Why? Blame that on the Padres, who remain very much in contention at the moment, four games up on the Dodgers for first place in the NL West.
Barring a severe drop in the standings, look for Boston to approach the slugger this offseason, rather than before the deadline – which could be made difficult if San Diego picks up Gonzalez’s option for 2011. That being said, if Sox fans really are hoping for a championship this season, this is the guy you’re going to want to read about in the Globe. Keep those fingers crossed.
And then there’s Werth. The interesting part about Werth (.280, 13 HR, 50 RBI, 6 SB) is that he might be the most intriguing name on this list, being that he’s a five-tool player, who has the potential (see, 2009) to pop 35 home runs, knock in 100 RBI’s, steal 20 bases, and rip at a .270 pace – not to mention his ability to power a World Series run.
The Phillies asking price is also another interesting part of the deal, as the ever-offensive NL Champions are, as expected, searching for some serious pitching help. The Sox, being a team featuring (in a perfect world) four possible Cy Young winners, have plenty of pitching to offer.
The question remains though, which are you more willing to see as a Sox fan? Mike Cameron turn into a five-tool All-Star slugger? Or Clay Buchholz hurling no-no’s?
I say, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. The offense hasn’t been a liability at all this season anyway, leading the majors in runs scored (510) and second in home runs (127).
After all, pitching does win championships. Hitting just gets you there. Isn’t that right Philly?
I vote, beef up the pen, grab me a Nunez or a Downs, send over an Ianetta to fix up that backstop and a Dejesus to shore up the outfield, and let’s get this baby rolling before it’s too late.
Because lord knows, with the Yankees and Rays powering forward like always, too late may be sooner than we care to admit.
3. Which Sox injury should we be worried about the most? (Greg, Townsend, MA)
That’s got to be Ellsbury.
I’ve never broken any ribs, nor am I a doctor by any stretch – though I do watch a lot of Scrubs. But it’s no secret how devastating a rib injury is. The worst part about them? You can’t fix ‘em. The only way to heal broken or fractured ribs is simply to rest them, and stay as immobile as possible for between 5-6 months.
Problem is, Jacoby isn’t going to do that. He can’t do that. That would mean an end to his 2010 campaign, and a probably a one-way ticket out of Boston at years end.
Instead, he’s been rehabbing the hell out of them, and is going to be playing in some considerable pain for the remainder of the year. That however, should be bearable – guy’s a stud. What might not be bearable however, is his slightly limited range of motion thanks to those ribs.
He’s not going to be the same player – not until he takes a few solid months off during the winter. Until then though, he’s not going to have the same jump on the base-paths or the same range in the outfield - and though it might only be by a slight margin, when you make your money stealing bases in fractions of seconds, sometimes that’s all it takes.
Listen, Pedroia will be fine. He’s as tough as nails, and though there’s a possibility that the bone he broke in his foot might actually detach entirely from the foot altogether (requiring season-ending surgery), the doctors feel confident that won’t happen. So I feel confident too.
Delcarmen and Hermedia are all on a similar level, in that they’re all about ready to come back. One or two rehab stints from now, the three of them will be returning to the diamond and ready to roll.
Beckett's already back, but he still worries me a little bit - albeit that’s more just because he’s an inconsistent pitcher by trade, and has nothing really to do with the injury.
As for Buchholz and Martinez, both had pretty regular injuries as far as baseball wear-and-tear goes, but the hurting is cause for concern simply because of who they are and how much they mean to this team.
That being said, V-Mart’s finger seems to be healing up nicely, while Buchholz is already back and a few rust-dusting starts away from wreaking havoc on the rubber once again. Will the injury derail his Cy Young efforts though? Probably slightly. But did you really expect him to finish the season with a 2.45 ERA anyway?
As for Ellsbury, how he comes back from these ribs could make or break the Red Sox postseason run. They don’t need him to steal 60 bases again – which is good, because he won’t - but they need a spark right now, and he’s the guy who could provide it.
Unfortunately, those ribs might dampen that spark before he gets a chance to light it.
2. Could we see Daniel Bard get more save opportunities as the season progresses, as the Sox possibly try to groom him for coming seasons? (Garrett, North Kingstown, RI)
I think you hit the nail on the head Garrett.
Look, it would appear Papelbon’s in the twilight of his time with the Red Sox. I don’t think that’s any secret, and I feel like the majority of Sox fans would be more surprised to see him in a Sox uniform next season than not.
The bottom line remains, closers are a strange commodity in baseball. There are only a few that come along as strong as Papelbon has been for the Red Sox since his debut, and even then, they don’t last very long. Only three closers in recent memory have stretched their careers formidably into the double-digits, something unheard of by backend bullpen pitchers – most start to fizzle around the 7-8 year mark.
Those three? Billy Wagner, Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera. One more thing they all have in common? Each one of them is destined for Cooperstown.
Don’t get me wrong, it’s by no fault of Papelbon’s – it’s just the way of the position. Human bodies weren’t made for the kind of stress fire-balling closers put on their arms once every three days. Think about it: they stretch out, hum about 25 high-90’s pitches for 15-20 minutes, then shut it down for two or three days before they’re back at it. It’s a kind of strain that wears an arm down very quickly, and Papelbon appears as if he’s stumbling down that path, rather than the seldom traveled one Rivera and co. have blazed.
Just ask Keith Foulke, former Sox World Series hero, who was just a short drive south playing for the Newark Bears in Jersey last season, before he was released after the ’09 campaign. He hasn’t pitched since.
Let’s look at the facts:
As of today, July 22, Papelbon has already walked more batters (14) than he did all of 2008 (8), is on pace to best the career-high 24 walks he issued last year, has more blown saves (4) that he did all of 2009 (3), and is on pace in that department to best his career-high of 5, which we saw in 2008. And perhaps worst of all, his ERA sits right now at 3.15, almost a full run higher than it’s ever been since he became the Sox closer in 2006, his second year in the majors.
In lieu of those facts, I would expect the Red Sox not only to give Bard a few chances to close games out down the road, but even the opportunity to challenge Papelbon for the role if need be. Granted, this all becomes a moot point if cinco-ocho goes scoreless for the calendar months of July, August and September – but if he continues the pace he’s on, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see Bard on the mound in a do-or-die situation than Papelbon.
After all, if the game’s on the line, let me ask you: whom do you feel more comfortable with?
I’d wager Francona feels the same way.
1. Realistically, what are we looking for as far as a finish to the season goes? Is the AL East even attainable, taking into consideration how talented that division is, combined with the countless injuries the Sox have faced? (Courtney, Boston, MA)
You bet your ass it’s attainable. Had Cliff Lee found his way into the Bronx instead of down in Texas, I might be singing an entirely different tune right now.
But he didn’t, and there was much rejoicing.
Instead, Lee was bounced south to the Texas Rangers, making them the clear favorites in the West. As for the East, Boston right now finds themselves an almost-uneasy 6.5 games behind the division leading Yankees, and an entire All-Star club waiting in the (hospital) wings. That being said, I still think the Yankees eat up this division like white cake on the Fourth of July (come on, we all have it - with the little red frosting in the shape of a flag, and those stupid fun-fetti sprinkles).
But is it possible for the Sox to overtake them? Hell yes. It’s just not very likely.
Instead, the Red Sox are staring at October baseball from the ranks of the Wild Card race, a marathon they currently sit at second place in, 3.5 games behind the Rays and 3.5 up on the Tigers.
A few things to note here moving forward: oddly enough, the Yankees actually have the exact same record at the halfway point that they featured last season, where they went on to win the 2009 World Series.
Now, as a student of baseball history, the mere thought of that scares me.
But I also know a few things. Like, the Red Sox aren’t going to drop the final nine games against the Bombers like they did last season. And I also realize that Boston has an entire All-Star team on the disabled list, slated to return in the coming weeks.
Activating those players (Beckett, Ellsbury, Martinez, Pedroia, Buchholz, Lowell, Hermedia, Delcarmen) off the DL won’t be enough. They need them to contribute – in a big way.
Still, their mere presence in the lineup again makes everyone’s job that much easier. The return of Ellsbury alone to that leadoff spot bumps Marco Scutaro, a .280 hitter, down to the nine-hole. Give me another team (besides the damn Yankees) with a .280 hitter as their ninth and final batter. You can’t.
Listen, before the season started, we all said Boston’s success this year hinged on Big Papi being Big Papi – or at least somewhat resembling the fluffy oaf we all grew to love. Well he’s done his part. And if you ask me, considering the amount of All-Star caliber players they have on the inactive list, the Red Sox are in a pretty damn good position moving forward.
Making up two games on the Rays won’t be easy. Tampa is very talented, and unless they decide to white-flag this race and trade away Carl Crawford to another contender, this looks like another Wild Card fight that will stretch right until early October.
But when you consider where the Red Sox sit right now, and who they’ve got shelved on the injury list, I like my chances with our Boys of Summer.
In summation, the AL East probably isn’t going to happen. The Yankees are just far and away a superior team once again, headed by their starting rotation, which has just been phenomenal so far this year (3.94 team ERA, 6th in AL). Thankfully though, the Rays aren’t the Yankees – though they’re pretty damn close.
Unfortunately for the Sox though, they’ve got to beat them both to reach October.
And that’s because thanks to the geniuses in the MLB scheduling department, six of the Sox final 10 games are against the Bombers.
And if you think the Yankees are going to lie down just because they’re a handful of games up in the division at that point, think again.
Like I said, it won’t be easy.
But as someone once told me, nothing worth winning ever is.
And all I’m telling you, is come the end of September, buckle your seatbelts. Because this thing’s going to be decided in the final two weeks.
And I hope you’re ready. It’s going to be a bumpy ride.
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