by Tom Nieradka
The NFL playoffs are once again upon us, and up until last weekend the AFC playoff picture was still cloudy. The Ravens and Jets both had win and in situations, and both did indeed end up winning, thus allowing us to avoid an otherwise complex selection of the playoff teams. The Ravens found their way in over the hapless Oakland Raiders, a win that came on the back of Willis McGahee and partly thanks to the turnover plagued Oakland quarterback JaMarcus Russell – who the Raiders finally deemed was slightly better than an injured Charlie Frye.
The Jets concluded their season with two rather unlikely wins over the Colts and Bengals, who both ended up resting their starters for much of the second halves of their respective games. The Jets will be seeing the AFC North champion Bengals again on wildcard weekend, trying to prove that they can beat a complete team for all four quarters. The Ravens on the other hand run into the AFC East champion Patriots, who are missing their star receiver (and we’re not talking Randy Moss here). As for the byes, the Chargers finished strong and the Colts finished slow, but both teams deserve the byes and will be tough to beat coming off the break.
Wild Card Weekend:
New York Jets (9-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (10-6)
Throughout this past week, the talk all over the airways has been that the Jets do not deserve to be in the playoffs. Weeks ago, even coach Rex Ryan admitted that he thought the Jets were cooked. However, an unlikely series of events took place these past two weeks, in which the Jets bested the previously undefeated Colts and the Bengals to grab the number 5 seed. The Bengals have been a top team for much of the season, but finished the year on a low note losing 3 of their last 4. The Jets travel to Cincinnati for this playoff rematch, and the Bengals would hope to stop the upstart Jets in their tracks.
Breakdown:
Jets Offense vs Bengals Defense:
The Jets bring to the table one of the worst passing offenses in the league, but feature the league’s top rushing attack; averaging only 148 yards a game through the air, but hammering out a gaudy 172 rushing yards per contest. Veteran running back Thomas Jones is coming off a great 1400 yard 14 touchdown season with rookie Shonn Greene backing him up with 500 yards of his own. There’s even repurposed wide receiver/quarterback Brad Smith, who brings the wildcat, or ‘Seminole,’ package to the table, and has over 200 yards on just 18 carries including a 57 yard sprint against the Bengals in week 17. In order to win this game, quarterback Mark Sanchez has to keep the ball in the hands of the guys in the green uniforms. This season the Jets are undefeated when they are better than even on the turnover battle, and this issue rests largely on the rookie shoulders of the inconsistent Sanchez.
On the other side of the ball, the Bengals defense is one of the better squads in the NFL, with cornerback Leon Hall leading the charge. The problem for the Bengals though has been injuries, and it is still unknown whether or not their five regulars that have been hurt will be back in time for the playoff contest. Regardless, the objective of the Bengals remains clear – Cincinnati must keep the ball in the hands of Mark Sanchez. If the Jets can run the ball all day and allow Sanchez to only throw 15-20 times, it is going to be very difficult for the Bengals to stop the most potent rushing offense in the NFL (New York racked up 257 yards last week). If they can score early and at least somewhat succeed in stopping the run, it will force Sanchez to throw the ball, and more than likely that means at least a few turnovers.
Advantage: Slightly Bengals. This is a tough one to call, with the best rushing offense versus one of the better rushing defenses. The advantage comes in the Jets lack of an effective passing game, and eventually Sanchez is going to have to make some plays if the Jets plan on making a run.
Jets Defense vs Bengals Offense:
On the defensive side of the ball, the Jets are second to none. They boast the best defense in the league with opponents only gaining some 250 yards per game against them. They are only allowing 14.8 points per game, and in week 17 held the Bengals to only 72 total yards and zero points. Carson Palmer played the first half only, but he went an embarrassing 1 for 11 for zero net yards. Now granted, the Bengals did not have anything to play for and Cedric Benson was out, but still they managed almost no offense and ended the season on a low. Trash talking wide-out Chad Ochocinco was held without a catch thanks to the services of the premier NFL cornerback Darelle Revis, a trend that will in all probability continue into the playoffs. The Jets will be brining to the table the complex blitzes of Rex Ryan, and great talent all over the defensive side of the ball. They have had success forcing turnovers and rushing the quarterback, a trend that the Bengals will have to cut short if they hope to win.
The Bengals however feature a decent offense that is carried (quite literally) by running back Cedric Benson. The Bengals 128 rush yards per game is indebted to the skill of Benson, who surprised many by putting together such a successful season. Carson Palmer has been surprisingly off this season, throwing for only 180 yards per game and 21 TDs to 13 interceptions. If the Bengals are going to do any better this week than they did last week (it would be hard not to), then they are going to need to have a balanced attack led by Benson and Ochocinco. Laverneus Coles is the only other really reliable receiver for Palmer to target, and if neither Ocho or Benson are able to break off a big gain or two, it doesn’t look good for the Bengals to put up a lot of points.
Advantage: Jets. The Jets have the best defense in football, and the Bengals will not be able to do a whole lot. The Jets create turnovers and stuff the run, so it may be a long day for Benson and Palmer.
And the final score is…
Jets 24 – Bengals 10: The Jets defense has stopped the Bengals before, and it should do so again. New York’s potent rushing attack should be able to keep the ball away from the turnover prone Sanchez, and though the Bengals will not rollover as they did in week 17 the Jets have the positive momentum, and will win the day.
Baltimore Ravens (9-7) at New England Patriots (10-6)
The 6th seeded Ravens take on the 3rd seeded Patriots in this battle of AFC East champion vs wildcard winner. The Ravens finished the season with a win that was a little bit too close for comfort over the Oakland Raiders, meanwhile the Patriots finished on a low note losing to the Houston Texans, more importantly losing star receiver Wes Welker. The Ravens are looking to make a Super Bowl push after losing in the AFC Championship game last season, but the always dangerous Patriots will try to end those aspirations.
Ravens Offense vs Patriots Defense:
Offense is not what the Ravens are known for, and likewise defense is not the strong point of the Patriots organization. However this season the Ravens offense has begun to mature. Led by sophomore quarterback Joe Flacco and running back Ray Rice, the Ravens offense has been up and down all year. Rice has been the workhorse of this team; he is second in the NFL in yards from scrimmage and first in the NFL among running back in receiving yards with 683. When Flacco is under pressure, as he often is, he dumps the ball to Rice. Rice is the back between the 20’s, but in the red-zone the ball often goes to veteran Willis McGahee, who despite only having 109 carries managed to accumulate 12 touchdowns. Between these two backs, the Ravens offer a strong rushing attack (137 yards/game) to complement an underwhelming but surprisingly capable passing offense.
As for the Patriots defense, one would be much more confident if they hadn’t dealt away cornerback Ellis Hobbs and defensive end Richard Seymour before and during the season. Safety Brandon Meriweather and cornerback Leigh Bodden lead the defense with five interceptions each, but the pass defense remains a weak point, allowing some 320 yards through the air per game. As mediocre as the pass defense is, the rushing defense is the stronger point for the Pats, allowing 110 yards per game on the ground. The Ravens excel in this very area, so this will be a match-up to watch. The Pats will certainly be able to pressure Flacco -- the Ravens have given up 36 sacks this season despite featuring rookie Michael Oher of Hollywood Fame -- and Flacco will in all likelihood toss the ball to none other than Ray Rice.
Advantage: Slightly Ravens. The Ravens can run the ball, and the Pats are decent at stopping it. The wild card (no pun intended) here is the explosive Ray Rice. He is the key to the Ravens offense, and if the Pats can take him out of the equation or at least limit him, they will be more likely to hold the Ravens to a low point total.
Patriots Offense vs Ravens Defense:
This is the match-up that everyone wants to see, the always dangerous Patriots offense vs the prolific Ravens defense. As per usual the Patriots field one of the best offenses in the NFL, and are third in the league in pass yards per game with 277, adding to that a respectable 120 on the ground. Tom Brady has been great for much of the season, but the issue here is not with Brady. The big problem on the minds of fans is the loss of Wes Welker, who leads the NFL with 123 receptions even though he missed 2 full games. The offense flows through Welker, and he will be difficult to replace. Rookie and Wes Welker look-a-like Julian Edelman will try to fill in those shoes, and though he figures to be a decent replacement Tom Brady will have to look elsewhere for those receptions. He could look to Randy Moss, who despite another 1,000 yard season has been underwhelming late in the season. He hasn’t broken 100 yards since week 10, but has been Brady’s primary red-zone target. He is still very capable of breaking off a big play, but the screens and tricks that the Pats so often rely on will be weakened in this game and they will have to rely more on question marks such as running back Laurence Maroney to get them down the field.
The Ravens defense is also far from full strength, with the most notable losses being starting cornerbacks Ladarious Webb and Fabian Washington. Safety Ed Reed has also been dealing with a nagging injury, leaving the Ravens pass defense very vulnerable. Despite only allowing 207 yards a game through the air this year and only 93 on the ground, these injuries should make the pass attack far more effective for the Patriots offense.
Though the Ravens should have little issue stopping the run, the big question is if these replacement and unimpressive cornerbacks such as Domonique Foxworth will be able to stop the relentless passing attack that the Pats will surely throw at them.
Advantage: Patriots. Though their passing game suffers greatly from the loss of Wes Welker, they still should be able to move down the field against a depleted Ravens secondary. Moss will be looking for a big play, and I expect him to get one.
And the final score is…
Patriots 24 – Ravens 20: Not a blowout by any stretch, and both teams should be able to score to some extent. The Pats should key in on Ray Rice and will be able to slow down the Ravens enough to build a lead. Brady and Moss will have less problems connecting against a weak secondary, and though the loss of Welker hurts, it will not cost them a win (not yet anyway).
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