by Tom Nieradka
It’s the championship weekend that will decide who will be heading to the Super Bowl, and there are storylines abound.
Will the upstart Jets, led by rookie Mark Sanchez, continue a streak of upsets versus veteran Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts? It won’t be easy, as the Colts boast arguably the best quarterback in the league when facing an aggressive blitzing defense, while the Jets possess the most blitz happy defense in the NFL and the number 1 ranked pass defense.
Meanwhile, will the 40-year-old Brett Favre be able to lead the Minnesota Vikings to victory over Drew Brees and the Saints? The relentless passing and rushing attack of the Vikings are a force to be reckoned with, while the explosive Saints passing offense and playmaking secondary will be on alert. So who should you be betting on this weekend? Here we go.
NEW YORK JETS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Jets Offense vs Colts Defense
The Colts and the Jets are opposites in many facets of the game, and this side of the ball is no different. The Jets are based around a non-stop rushing attack (the best in the NFL) and trying to make rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez effective by way of short passes in favorable situations.
We know what the Jets are going to do, and that is run, run, run. Rookie Shonn Greene is primed for a big game as his legs remain fresh after Thomas Jones carried the bulk of the load during the regular season. Greene will be trying for his third consecutive 100 yard rushing game, and Sanchez will be trying to avoid turnovers. The Jets know that to win they need to avoid turning over the ball at all costs, so they will be continuing with a similar game plan to what they have been using in recent weeks.
New York has a very patient offense and won’t change their game plan if it’s not working very well. Last week against the Chargers they didn’t score any points in the first half, and they came out in the second quarter with the exact same game plan. Their running attack wears down defenses, and eventually they are usually able to break off big runs. Meanwhile, Sanchez is being used perfectly within the scheme, throwing a great deal off play action and moving outside of the pocket to complete short throws and bootlegs. He rarely throws downfield from inside the pocket, but when he does his effectiveness is mixed.
For the Colts, the goal is simple: they must stop the ground attack and prevent the big play. The Jets come in with a considerable size advantage over the Colts defense, as the Dungy days of the Colts favored small and quick linebackers and tackles, and those residual effects hurt them against the power running game. But even if they can’t stop the run very well (24th during the season), they are good at preventing the big play. Quickness does have its advantages, and as a result they are able to fly to the ball and make tackles quickly.
Now lets be serious, the Jets do not run a big play offense. But they have benefitted from long runs and the occasional deep ball, and without that they will be forced to grind it out even more than usual.
Another thing that the colts have going for them is arguably the best defensive end tandem in the NFL. Dwight Freeney (13.5 sacks) and Robert Mathis (9.5 sacks) will try to wreak havoc on poor Mark Sanchez. The Jets do have the best offensive line in football, but still pro-bowler D’Brickashaw Ferguson and former Super Bowl Champion Damien Woody will have their hands full holding these guys back when Sanchez does have to throw.
But then again, this plays into their strengths somewhat because they do not rely on pocket passing, and if Sanchez has proven adept at one part of the game it is selling the play-action and throwing on the run outside the pocket.
Colts Offense vs Jets Defense
The Colts run one of the most effective offenses in the NFL.
Peyton Manning has made a name for himself with the intermediate range passing game, and he’s damn good at it. He rarely takes a sack and releases the ball very quickly, and the man has seen every kind of blitz imaginable throughout his illustrious career. He has great weapons in wide receivers Reggie Wayne and Austin Collie, and tight end Dallas Clark is one of the best in the game. Matt Stover is a proven postseason kicker and should be able to handle the pressure.
However the Colts lack a rushing attack to speak of (last in the NFL with 81 yards/game), and this is no secret to Rex Ryan. Much like the Jets, the Colts are not going to change the way they run an offense. They are going to throw the ball consistently throughout the game, rarely even attempting to run. They don’t go looking for a big play, but instead they keep the chains moving constantly and do not put themselves into bad situations. Manning will be tough to contain, and he is very difficult to rattle or confuse.
After all that talk about the Colts offense, it may seem like they’re unstoppable - but the Jet defense is no slouch. They led the league in total defense, including the number one pass defense surrendering only 154 yards/game through the air. Perhaps even more impressive, they only gave up 8 passing touchdowns the entire season (there were 9 passing touchdowns in the Cardinals-Packers playoff game in round 1).
It’s essentially a foregone conclusion at this point that cornerback Darelle Revis will shut down whoever he is covering. Last week he jockeyed between TE Antonio Gates and WR Vincent Jackson to great effect (and an interception), and this week the Jets will probably employ a similar scheme between Clark and Wayne. However the difference may be that unlike Phillip Rivers, Peyton Manning will know to avoid Revis. The Jets will be sitting on the pass and rushing the passer like always, tringy to confuse Manning as best they can. The big Jet linebackers will be able to stuff any attempt at a run by the Colts, but there is an inherent mismatch when covering Dallas Clark. He may be the key to the entire game, and whether or not the Jets can stop him remain to be seen. However, the Jet faithful believe in Rex Ryan and his defense will be fired up as ever and will do its best to find a way.
And the Winner is… Jets 20 Colts 17
That’s right I’m taking the upset. The Jets do not give up a lot of points, and if the Colts want to win they’re going to need to score a lot early. They need to force the Jets to throw, and so far no team has done that. The Colts do not have a defense that matches up well against the Jets offense and will have some trouble stopping it. After all, the Colts ranked 24th in the league in rushing defense, four behind San Diego, whom the Jets ran all over last week.
Peyton Manning will be himself and probably won’t get sacked, but the Jets rely on complex blitzes to cause confusion. Say what you will about Rex Ryan, but the man knows how to run a defense and will adapt to the Colts offense and hold it back just enough to allow the Jets to head to the Super Bowl.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Vikings Offense vs Saints Defense
The clash of the NFC titans down in New Orleans should be an interesting battle no matter how it plays out. Brett Favre leads a Viking offense that was 5th in the NFL in total yards and 2nd in total points. Favre is having one of the best seasons of his career, throwing for over 4,000 yards and 33 touchdowns to only 7 interceptions. Sidney Rice has emerged as one of the NFL’s premier receivers, and rookie Percy Harvin is one of the most explosive and dangerous playmakers in the game. Favre has run the offense to perfection, at least from a passing standpoint.
On the ground, Adrian Peterson is dangerous as ever, but has regressed has the season has went on (his hasn’t hit 100 yards in 8 weeks). Last week he got stuffed for 63 yards on 26 carries against the Cowboys. This may be the game where he breaks out, and regardless of what has happened the past few weeks he still remains one of the most dangerous rushers in the game. Favre has been remarkably consistent all season long, and the old man is going to be very happy playing in a dome down in nice warm New Orleans.
The Saints defense will try to stop him, and frankly they’re going to have some problems. They Saints have the 25th ranked defense in the league, and give up 357 yards through the air and 120 on the ground per game. The strength of the Saints defense is in their playmaking secondary. Their 26 picks are third in the NFL, and safety Darren Sharper leads the team with 9 (3 went back for touchdowns). They aren’t great at getting to and pressuring the quarterback, and Favre is very comfortable in the pocket. Like Manning, Favre has seen every type of blitz that coordinators have thrown out there and can avoid it. His line is decent, and the Saints pass rush isn’t exactly terrifying.
Aside from Jonathan Vilma, their linebackers are weak, and Favre should be able to catch Harvin and TE Visanthe Shiancoe across the middle. And even if the secondary can slow down Favre, their rush defense will have issues with Peterson, ranking 21st in rushing defense in 2009. AP can go the distance on any given play, and if he can avoid fumbles those Saints are going to have their hands full with the Vikes’ offense.
Saints Offense vs Vikings Defense
If the Vikings have a great offense, the Saints have a preposterous offense. The Saints led the league in offense, including 400 pass yards/game and 31 points/game. Drew Brees is one of the best in the game, and is starting to rival even the great Peyton Manning for the title of the best active QB. He has more weapons that we can count, including receivers Marques Colston and Robert Meachem, tight end Jeremy Shockey, and running back Reggie Bush.
All of these guys have great hands, and they can all keep on going after the catch. Brees is pinpoint accurate, and releases the ball very quickly. The Saints have also made a conscious effort to run the ball, and backs Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell have been decently effective throughout the year. The Saints run a big play offense, and tend to throw deep and spread the field a lot. They also have finally figured out how to use Reggie Bush effectively, and he is explosive. He is one of the best return men in the league, and adds a dimension to the offense that few players can.
On the other side of the ball, the Vikings defense boasts one of the better defenses in the NFL. Their front four are terrifying: DEs Jared Allen (14.5 sacks) and Ray Edwards (8.5 sacks) are among the best in the game, and DTs Pat and Kevin Williams are nigh impossible to run through – just ask the Cowboy’s Felix Jones (148 yards vs Philly in round one, 69 vs Minnesota in round 2).
The Vikings are one of the best teams at pressuring the QB without blitzing, and as a result are able to keep more men in coverage. Still, their secondary is their weakness, with CB Antoine Winfield being the only standout player of the group. They don’t get a lot of interceptions, with most of their turnovers coming from forced fumbles (especially as a result of sacks). They will need to pressure Brees with their front four quickly, because he can get rid of that ball lighting fast.
Their success will come from either knocking Brees down, or forcing him to throw into a bad situation and make a mistake. They should be able to prevent big plays by forcing Brees to throw quickly, but they will need to adjust and make sure that they can stop the dump off passes to people like Reggie Bush, who can make them pay.
And the Winner is… Vikings 34 Saints 27
And the upset special continues with the Vikings upsetting the Saints at home. Both teams are going to score and both teams are going to do it well. I trust Favre to continue to avoid interceptions, and he will get the ball in the hands of Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin for the big plays. Peterson will break the 100 yard mark by taking advantage of a weak Saint line, and help to take some of the pressure off Favre.
Meanwhile, Brees will be able to move down the field a great deal, but he will be slowed by the relentless pass rush of the Vikings. They will have little success rushing the ball, and as a result it will fall to Brees to make all the plays - and though he is great, he will be forced to throw earlier than he wants to and as a result we should see less scoring drives and more punting than usual.
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