Editorial. Photos by AP News
As the opening waves of free agency begin to settle, running backs have easily experienced the greatest fluctuation of any position.
Faces of franchises, former Pro Bowlers, and backups oozing with potential were released into the wild, the majority of them questionably lodging in already crowded situations. In doing so, they have passed over many vacant jobs of promise--openings that continue to exist.
Let’s take a look at the many meaningful fantasy implications free agency has held for four specific plowhorses—two of which are former first-round stalwarts who’ve fallen from grace, the other two hoping to find themselves among this prestigious crowd in the near future.
Thomas Jones:
The 31 year-old Thomas “Biceps” Jones provided the offseason with one of its first big splashes.
Playing in 2009’s most run-heavy offense, the Jets’ veteran was fed the ball a whopping 331 times. He feasted royally behind arguably the top run-blocking offensive line in the league, amassing a career best 1402 rushing yards while breaking the franchise rushing touchdown record (13) which he had set the year prior by crossing the plane 14 times.
Rushing for over 1,000 yards in 5 consecutive seasons, one of only three active backs to do so, Jones now ranks second in rushing yardage totals over that span, trailing only a man who will be discussed later. So how did the Jets re-pay their yardage-raking, history-making, and record breaking plowhorse? By refusing to pay his bonus and sending him packing.
But backs of Jones’ pedigree don’t tend to last too long in the open market, and given the many muddied backfields throughout the NFL, Biceps unsurprisingly found work rather easy to come by. Where he decided to settle, however, proves quite surprising.
Quick Quiz Part I:
Who am I?
I am the only back in NFL history to record over 1100 yards on less than 200 carries (it took me 190). Over the final 8 games of the season, when my team finally committed to me, I ran for 968 yards, averaged 6.0 yards a carry, and rushed for seven touchdowns. Oh, and I caught 23 balls for 158 more yards and another score, all en route to scoring the second most fantasy points of any running back during that span.
After projecting these numbers over 16 games, I would have hypothetically had 2,252 total yards and 16 touchdowns. No wonder I was widely considered by fantasy experts to be a sure-fire first round selection, with some gurus, including the genius soothsayer Traicoff, pegging me as a top-5 overall pick. That is, until my team decided to repay me by adding a particular 1402 yard, 14 touchdown back who just happened to find himself without a job as the offseason rolled around.
If you guessed Jamaal Charles, well congratulations! You win nothing! But yes, the Chiefs did unfortunately decide to add Thomas Jones into their backfield, and yes, this will likely dent Charles’ scoring potential. Listed at only 5’11and 199 lbs (soaking wet), Charles obviously concedes to the 215 pound Jones in both thickness and bicep size. Losing goal-line touches is a likely possibility.
Jamaal Charles:
Yet, while Jones’ presence may cap Charles’ fantasy ceiling a bit, I warn you to not overreact.
Firstly, in a recent Kansas City Star report, coach Todd Haley had nothing but glowing remarks to make about Charles. He noted that, “I don’t believe we’ve seen the best from Jamaal,” adding “I’m not going to set a bar on Jamaal because each time we did that last year he kind of broke through that bar and raised it. We’re going to continue to push him hard and coach him and see how good he can be.”
Certainly, this does not sound like a coach ready to limit the touches of what he realized to be his team’s star player. Rather, this is a coach that, as ESPN.com points out, “wouldn't say it's about Jamaal so much as it's about the way of the league right now. You need two quality backs.”
Furthermore, owner Clark Hunt recognized in an interview earlier in the offseason the surprising durability of the small-statured Charles, stating “I think for his size, he plays like a big player…We knew he was fast and talented but he was able to carry a load that we didn't expect he'd be able to carry.” As he finished with, “it'll be exciting to see what he can do with 16 games next season,” Hunt’s comments should ease the minds of doubters.
So while Jones may garner 8-12 touches a game, including those precious goal-line carries, labeling him as the Charles Killer would be a bit premature.
In a 65-35 time split that will likely lean in Charles’ favor, the small, incredibly fast, remarkably shifty, and surprisingly powerful back should garner enough touches to do plenty of damages. Given his undersized frame, the presence of a bruising back will undoubtedly improve Charles’ chances of playing a full 16 game slate.
Moreover, Thomas Jones’ bruising style, and the punishments those gigantic biceps (too much?) will inflict upon defenders will further leave defenses lethargic and more susceptible to the shockingly quick burst of Charles. I think, in a worst case scenario, this committee will resemble the Chris Johnson/Lendale White combination of 2008.
The near 1500 total yards, 10 total touchdowns , and 43 receptions Johnson reached as a rookie seems to be a realistic stat-line for Charles. When coupled with the upside for much greater, I believe acquiring Charles anywhere in the late first round or beyond will leave those fantasy owners willing to take the plunge very happy.
Quick Quiz Part II:
As a rookie, I led all running backs in post season rushing yardage last year.
During this crunch time, my coaches displayed great confidence in me by giving me 54 carries as compared to the 45 afforded to the veteran previously ahead on the depth chart.
And I didn’t disappoint, with a 5.6 yards per carry average, 304 yards, and 2 touchdown runs. In fact, anytime I had been afforded 13 or more rush attempts in the regular season, which occurred 3 times, I averaged 6.1 yards a carry.
Given these impressive late season flashes, juxtaposed with my veteran counterpart’s 2.6 yard per carry average in the playoffs, my organization decided he could become expendable. And now, I have been handed the keys to an offense that last year ran the ball an astounding, league-leading 607 times.
If you guessed Shonn Greene, well congratulations! You, again, win nothing!
Shonn Greene:
Initially, following the release of Jones, Greene appeared destined for the fantasy elite. Again, the Jets’ mammoth offensive line and rushing tendencies cannot be overemphasized.
These, paired with both Greene’s bulldozing, 235 pound body yet impressive second level burst—highlighted by his two playoff touchdown runs of 39 and 54 yards—gave Greene the appearance of a home-run, first round fantasy selection.
If Greene’s 5.2 yards per carry average is combined with the 310 carries Thomas Jones averaged during his three years with the Jets, he would amount over 1600 yards, in addition to bundles of touchdowns.
Alas, there always needs to be some form of complication. Similar to the subject in Quick Quiz 1, a degraded veteran decided to bypass more vacant options to room with Greene.
Easily the back of the decade, and arguably the MVP of fantasyland during that span, this plowhorse holds the NFL record for most touchdowns scored in a season, is the active league leader in rush yards, currently sits at eighth in the all time rushing list, and will undoubtedly be a first-ballot hall-of-famer when the time comes. His name is LaDanian Tomlinson, and he has joined the Jets to become the next veteran back to muddy a rising stars’ chances of reaching the elite.
Yet, I would like to once again urge owners to refrain from dramatizing the move.
Last year LT appeared to be running on his last legs, gaining a career worst 733 yards for an abominable 3.3 yards per carry. True, LT has displayed the greatest nose for the endzone of any back in NFL history, and his 12 touchdowns last year show he can still sniff that paydirt paint as good as ever.
As such, Greene might lose some goal line touches, but he is no slouch there either, his massive frame and 20 touchdowns as a senior at Iowa suggest.
Furthermore, Jets GM Mike Tannenbaum insisted that his team will remain run-oriented in 2010, leaving an abundance of carries for both backs to feed from. LT also made clear he was more than willing to accept a backup, complementary role, taming his ego from demanding more carries.
Yes, Jets coach Rex Ryan recently stated he expects a near even time-share, suggesting the possibility that in “some games he'll [LT] have more rushing attempts than Shonn Greene, and I think Shonn will have more than L.T. in other games. Yet, in that same interview he also deemed Greene a “superstar in the making.”
So where does this leave Greene?
Given the burning imprint of talent he left on his team’s mind during their improbable playoff run, as well as LT’s diminishing abilities, I am wholly confident Greene will dominate this timeshare, regardless of his coach’s words.
In fact, although this signing will likely hold Greene from the upper echelon of backs for at least the time being, in perspective it could be for the best. As broad as his shoulders are, carrying the vast majority of 607 carries is an unfeasible task. LT will undoubtedly lighten this load and keep Greene fresher and healthier in the process.
Plus, LT’s invaluable mentorship will certainly benefit Shonn both now and in the long run. Overall, I have no problem setting Greene’s floor at 1300 yards and 12 touchdowns. Of course, if the team does decide to commit to Green more than they suggest, the potential for top-5 numbers and even a rushing title certainly exists.
Though the signing of both veteran backs hinders their younger, rising counterparts value, neither kills it. Rather, Jones’ and LT’s presences, while diminishing the chances for top-5 fantasy numbers, increases the chances of a longer, more consistent fantasy campaign for Charles and Greene.
Although I do believe both Charles and Greene will ultimately provide first round production to those who dare select them—I have them slated at 8 and 9 at their position respectively—most owners will likely need to pay only a second round pick.
If able to pair one of these two with a safer first round selection, such as an elite quarterback guaranteed to produce, I believe this risky investment should be made without hesitation. As for the veterans, I do not see either as more than a flex play, worth about a sixth round or later investment—though during these later stages of the draft I urge owners to target upside, rather than low-ceiling but safer veterans.
Unless the price is right and I’m handcuffing either Charles or Greene, I will be avoiding both vets in all drafts. Even if they possess the biceps of Zeus (ok, that was too far.)
No comments:
Post a Comment