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Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Red Sox Midseason Questions: 6-10

BY IAN TASSO
EDITORIAL. PHOTOS BY AP NEWS

Well, it’s about that time.

July is almost through, baseball’s in full swing, and naturally, the Sox have questions – and plenty of them.

Will the rebound from the injuries? Will John Lackey rebound from whatever’s wrong with him? Will Dice-K ever have two similar starts in a row? 

No, seriously. For good or for bad - at this point, I really don't care which it is. Two great starts in a row, or two horrible ones - just anything that slightly resembles the last, at all, would be great, thanks Dice-man.

They’re the burning questions that everyone’s asking, as the Red Sox lace up the cleats for the second half of what is turning out to be a very difficult baseball season in Boston. How will it all end up?

Check out for yourself below, as the first half of the top 10 Red Sox Questions are answered, numbers 6-10:


10. Have the Red Sox finally found a capable shortstop in Marco Scutaro? (Steve, Springfield, MA)

I can’t say that I was fully on board with the Scutaro signing before the season began.

In fact, I was a bit skeptical that after all their troubles at the shortstop position, the Red Sox would expect a 34-year old, .266 career-hitting journeyman (who had spent time with the Athletics, Blue Jays, and Mets) to be the knight in shining armor to their fire-breathing dragon of a problem.

After all, 2009 was his breakout year, where he slugged a whopping .282, popping 12 homers to go along with 60 RBI. An absolute monster breakout. Right. And Lou Bega is a top 10 recording artist.

A rare sight: a Red Sox
shortstop getting on base.
That being said, after four months of watching the smooth-operating Venezuelan command the shortstop position for the Red Sox, I can say that I am pleasantly surprised – and very excited.

It’s no secret that the shortstop hole has been more of a black hole for the Red Sox in recent years. 


From the historical breakup that was Nomar Garciaparra, to the frozen-gloved Edgar Renteria, all the way to Orlando Cabrera, the defensively gifted glove-man who was a locker-room time bomb on the inside, the Sox haven’t had a competent shortstop in about seven years.

The problem seemed to culminate last season when Julio Lugo was booed straight out of Fenway, Jed Lowrie couldn’t find his way back into the park if you gave him a map and a compass, and all the while, the 2009 Red Sox themselves did their best “Boston Shortstop” impression themselves, as they went down in flames at the hands of the Angels in one of the shortest playoff stints in recent Red Sox memory.

Then along came Marco, who so far has helped Sox fans forget all about the Kreuger-esque nightmares of booted ground balls, dropped pop-ups and swinging third strikes altogether.


Scutaro has helped Sox fans
forget all about Julio Lugo
After all, all we’ve seen from Scutaro since he was acquired this winter is a solid average in the .280’s, 54 runs scored (second on the Sox behind Kevin Youkilis) and very solid defense with the occasional flashy play when it’s called for. 


Not to mention he’s stepped in admirably atop the Red Sox lineup in the speedy Jacoby Ellsbury’s stead – arguably the most important hitting position in all of baseball.

Julio Lugo meanwhile is playing spot-duty at second base for the extremely last place Baltimore Orioles.

Seems fitting, doesn’t it?

And with all the uncertainty surrounding Jed Lowrie and Jose Iglesias still being a few years from making any serious headway, I’d say we’re looking at maybe another season or two of number 16 at shortstop.

And this is the first time in a long time that I can say, “a few more years of the same guy at short? That’s alright by me.”


9. Why in the world is Bill Hall making $8.5 million a year? (Darren, Topsfield, MA)

Hall makes a sliding catch
in either left, center or
right field.
Listen, I know it looks a little grim.

Actually, that’s the understatement of the year. It looks awful.

But you have to take Bill Hall for what he is – an ‘average-at-every-position’ utility player. And when you think about everything he’s done for the club, it’s not all that bad. The guy’s logged innings at every single infield position except first, all three outfield spots, and even a few on the mound. Who else around the league can say that?

And through it all, he’s been able to contribute a .250 clip for most of the year, with spotty power, and pretty solid defense no matter where he’s asked to lace up the leather.

I know it may not seem all that glamorous at first, but the man’s essentially backing up every member of the team, which is invaluable for a single roster spot player. For Francona, as the coach of the Red Sox, to have a guy like Hall on your bench, that’s a luxury not many managers have in this league.

And when you break it down, is the $8.5 million a little over the top? Maybe. Probably. But if you divide that salary amongst the six different positions he backs up, it evens out. Maybe even saves the Sox some coin in the end, because they only have to pay one legitimate bench player, as opposed to a few other overpriced guys.

Again - does he deserve 8.5 million for it? Probably not. That might have been a little bit much.

But when you really look at it, it’s not as terrible as it seems. It’s not good, but it’s not bad either.


8. How much of Mike Lowell’s future in Boston depends on Beltre’s performance as the year goes on, and when he finally returns from the disabled list, how much of a role will he play for the Sox moving forward? (Gabe, Boston, MA)

I'm going to miss this face.
Honestly, not a big one.

I was one of those people that before the season thought Lowell wouldn’t make it past the trading deadline. And I still feel that way.

I’m not sure they can get much at all for a 35-year old right hander who’s been slowed by injuries worse than Will Farrell in The Spy Who Shagged Me, but this much is clear: as much as it pains me to say it, with Papi hitting the way he is, the Sox just don’t need number 25. Anywhere.

To address the first part of your question, Adrian Beltre has proven to be much more than the hitter any of us expected – he hasn’t just exceeded those expectations either, he’s obliterated them. Completely.

We knew he’d be in a better lineup. And in a park that suits his swing better. But none of us – none of us – knew his average would touch .350 in mid-July. Right now, it sits at a more than respectable team-leading .333, to go along with 15 home runs and a hearty 58 RBI, good for second on the team in both categories.

Did I mention he’s the only guy above .300 in a Red Sox uniform?

But how will it all end up by the end of the year? You’re looking at it. The power’s not going anywhere. In fact, you might see it start to pick up a bit, seeing as it took him an entire month to belt his first dinger – and it looks like he’s finally settling in big-time.

Don’t look for that average to drop off much either. I’d be surprised if it doesn’t hover around the .310-.320 mark for the remainder of the year, leaving him with one of his most productive seasons since 2004, where he clocked 48 home runs at a .334 pace.

In his time with the Sox,
 Lowell has both a WS ring
and MVP trophy to his name.
As for how that affects Lowell?

A lot.

Bottom line is, the guy who was once the insurance policy incase we saw the .265, 8 HR Beltre of 2009, just becomes the odd man out. No problems with Youkilis, who’s still healthy (thank god) and slugging, Papi looks like he’s got plenty of life in him, and really the only place for Lowell on this team is the bench – as harsh as it seems.

And when you factor in the fact that Bill Hall can back up all three of those aforementioned positions under just one salary, Lowell just gets pushed further under the carpet. I know, right? 

Figures, blame it on Bill.

But really, you should blame the 2005 Ortiz. It’s his fault. He didn’t have to come back. But, he has.

And that means the bus is waiting for Mr. Lowell. Only a matter of time before he’s forced to board it.


7. What’s going on with John Lackey, and will he contribute anything to the Red Sox rotation this year? (Chris, Winthrop, MA)

Lackey has been frustrating
to watch for Sox fans in '10
And here we have it.

In a winter full of new Red Sox signings; from Beltre to Scutaro, and every Bill Hall in between, I have to say Mr. Lackey has been the most disappointing – purely based on what was expected of him and how much he cost them.

As of this moment, Lackey features a very mediocre 4.65 ERA to go along with a 9-5 record that can be more attributed to the surprisingly powerful Sox offense thus far than anything else.That being said, he’s still well on pace for the 15-16 wins that were expected of him before the season began, and he’s been an absolute work-horse for the Sox all season long, sitting second on the team with 120.0 innings, trailing only ace Jon Lester by just 8 frames.

Look – sometimes watching Lackey pitch (if you could call it that), it gets ugly out there. Plain and simple. Sometimes I fell like even I could get a few hits off the guy. After all, his WHIP right now stands at 1.58, easily the highest it’s ever been in his career.

But a lot of that is bad luck.

How? A few reasons. One, he’s still missing just as many bats then he always does. He’s already struck out 71 batters this season, and is on pace to fan about 140-145 total, leaving him just about 30 shy of the 179 he posted in his last full season on the mound, back in 2007, when he nearly won a Cy Young award.

Here's something we don't
see often - Lackey upset on
the mound.
Not only that, but his ground-ball ratio is way-up compared to what has been in past years. Again, back in 2007, his last full season – and best season by far (19-9, 3.01), he tallied 313 ground balls to 373 fly balls. 


So far this year? 192 grounders to 222 sky-shots. That puts him on pretty much the same pace as ’07, where the guy finished third in the AL Cy Young voting.

What that tells you is that if he keeps the ball on the ground like he is, those balls will find gloves, and those hits will turn into outs.

Or at least they should, in theory.

Is the guy going to post an ERA in the two’s at the end of the season? Absolutely not even possible. At this point, anything around a 4.00 ERA would be a huge victory for a guy like Lackey, someone who seems to be succumbing to the pressure of Boston a bit more than we fans would like.

But this guy’s a big-game pitcher, and his best innings are definitely ahead of him. I promise. Look for that ERA to dip towards the low fours (4.15-4.25) by the end of the year, and the win total to crest at about 15-16, which would be his second highest total ever.

Not too bad for a guy who most Sox fans look at as a “bust.” I can think of at least 20 other teams that would gladly take 15 W’s from their number three arm.


6. What happens to guys like Darnell McDonald or Daniel Nava as the season winds down? (Dave, Oklahoma City, OK)

Darnell McDonald has
become a fan favorite the
instant he took the field.
They’ve gotta stay. Either here, or somewhere else, they’ve got to stay up in the majors.

Unfortunately, it’s most likely not going to be here. There’s just simply not enough room.

They’ve been great gap-stoppers. They really have; especially Darnell McDonald, who’s posted a nice .262 average, 6 HR and 24 RBI from a slot that the Red Sox desperately needed – not to mention the two games he singlehandedly won against Texas way back in May. But it’s important to remember who’s featured on this Red Sox team.

When healthy, their outfield card should read as “Ellsbury, Cameron, Drew.” Now, unfortunately, ‘when healthy’ seems to be more of a pipe-dream than anything else, but the harsh reality is, when Ellsbury is back, he’s back. Back in left field, back in the leadoff spot (eventually, maybe not right off the bat), and back in the lineup.

What does that mean for the Nava’s and McDonald’s of the world? Someone’s got to go. Now I don’t mean down to the minors. Or at least if they’re sent down, not for very long at all, before they’re most likely packaged in the deadline deal the Sox are apt to make before the deadline.


Because let’s get one thing straight – both McDonald and Nava have clearly shown they belong in the big leagues, especially when you consider some of the other outfielders that call themselves professional ballplayers.

D-Mac's future with the Red
Sox becomes more and more
uncertain as the deadline
approaches.
That being said, it won’t be here. It can’t be here. The Sox will likely hold on to one of them, just as an insurance policy for the Mike Cameron experiment, or incase Ellsbury forgets his purse in the ER. But there’s just not enough room for the two of them.

If nothing else, the production the Red Sox have seen from both of these players makes them a nice little throw-in if, and when, they try to reel in a bigger fish (more on that later) come late July/early August.

And if you ask me which one I think is more likely to stay with the Sox? I’d say McDonald, simply because he’s seen much more action than Nava, and he’s been extremely consistent and reliable since he appeared in red socks back in May.

But if you ask me which one I’d like to see stay? It’d have to be Nava. He’s been nothing short of spectacular since he came up, hitting at a .289 clip, good for fourth on the team behind Beltre, Youkilis and Pedroia, he’s tremendously athletic, and has always showed a lot of promise, regardless of where he’s played. Not to mention he belted a grand slam in his first major league at bat – the fourth player in Major League history to do so.

Not bad for a 26 year old kid from Northern California, who just three years ago was purchased by the Red Sox from the Chico Outlaws for $1.00.

You know what else you can buy for a dollar? Not much. A lollipop I think. Maybe a jolly rancher or two.

Or a grand slam in your first at bat.

No, that's not Erin Andrews.
But it's pretty damn close.
Plus, the Erin Andrews story makes him that much more awesome. Guy has been leaving Andrews tickets to every single game since he was signed by the PawSox back in ‘07. She hasn’t come to a single one yet (hard to get much?) but rumor is she might be headed up to Boston soon enough.

Don’t believe me, check out this ‘tweet’ (can’t believe I just wrote that word) from her twitter on the day he hit his granny, his first ever Major League game:

“Pass along my best to Daniel!! Congrats on a big day that will go down in Sox history! Hope to meet him soon!”

If that doesn’t say “grocery-bagged,” I don’t know what does.

‘Attaboy Danny. ‘Attaboy.

Just don’t screw it up like this guy did.


To be continued…

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