NL East Breakdown

by Tom Nierakda
Editorial. Photos by AP News

This year will be an interesting one for the National League East.

The reigning NL Champion Phillies have poised themselves to continue their dominance, but the other four teams made moves and improvements of their own.

The Mets made a big move in grabbing outfielder Jason Bay from free agency, one that cartainly can’t hurt their power numbers. Meanwhile, the Marlins are a young team, but their underrated starter Ricky Nolasco looks to bounce back after a poor 2009 campaign. Atlanta is the home of the number one hitting prospect in all of baseball in Jason Heyward, and he looks to make an immediate impact being their opening day starter in right field.

And then, of course, there are those Nationals; a team that year in, year out contends for the title of the worst club in baseball. But even the Nats made some moves of their own, drafting the top pitching prospect in baseball in Stephen Strasburg, and are in a great position to do maybe a little bit better than they did last year (but probably not).

2009 Standings                           Projected 2010 Standings                                               

Philadelphia Phillies                              Philadelphia Phillies

Florida Marlins                                      New York Mets

Atlanta Braves                                       Atlanta Braves

New York Mets                                     Florida Marlins

Washington Nationals                           Washington Nationals

1st Place -- Philadelphia Phillies

NL East Champions

The Phillies bring to the plate one of the best rotations and lineups in the National League, if not in all of baseball. 

They went out and acquired Roy Halladay, an annual candidate for the best pitcher in baseball, even though he’s been stuck in Toronto for his entire career (I don’t think 25 wins is out of the question this season). Cole Hamels is set up for a bounce back year, and youngster JA Happ has shown that he can handle major league hitting. Jamie Moyer is older than Brett Favre, but still remains a reliable option for their 5^th spot. The biggest questions come in the bullpen, and whether or not Brad Lidge can regain his form coming off of a dismal season.

As for the lineup, it remains terrifying. Utley is the best second baseman in baseball, contributing with both his bat and his glove consistently. Ryan Howard is an annual 50 home run threat, and high OBP guys like Rollins and Victorino at the top of the lineup will give the rest of the team RBI opportunities galore. They led the NL in runs scored last season, and I have no reason to doubt that they can do it again. Unless something crazy happens – ala the Mets of 2009 losing just about every single starter to injury - this team is a lock to go deep into the playoffs.

Projected Rotation                                          Projected Lineup

Roy Halladay                                                 Jimmy Rollins           

Cole Hamels                                                   Shane Victorino

Joe Blanton                                                     Chase Utely

JA Happ                                                         Ryan Howard

Jamie Moyer                                                   Jason Werth

                          Raul Ibanez

                                                         Pedro Feliz

                                                                        Carlos Riz

2nd Place -- New York Mets
Wildcard Champions

The Mets had a lot of problems last season.

They had the most injuries of any team, and for large chunks of the season lost Beltran, Wright, Reyes, and Santana, among others. Already this season, Beltran is hurt and many are worried about the status of short stop Jose Reyes coming off his leg injury.

In any event, the Mets lineup couldn’t possibly be any worse than it was last year. If they can stay healthy, New York will be a strong contender for the NL Wildcard spot. A healthy Reyes is among the best leadoff men in baseball, and the addition of Jason Bay gives the Mets a legit power hitter. Wright is primed to bounce back from his power outage last year when he finished the season with only 10 home runs (after seasons of 30 and 33), and a healthy Beltran gives the Mets great numbers in all offensive categories.

As for the pitching rotation this season, it looks to be the big question mark for the Mets. Johan Santana has looked great this spring, and should be back to his usual self. After him though….well let’s just say, as a Met fan I’m nervous. Mike Pelfrey has been seeing a sports psychologist because he quickly loses his confidence when things don’t go his way; John Maine is an injury waiting to happen, but when healthy he is a solid option; and Oliver Perez was quite possibly one of the worst signings by the Mets last year (we missed out on Derek Lowe for this guy?). He can strike guys out, but he is wildly erratic, walks a ton of people, and is adept at giving up the long ball.

Still, even with all these questions, something is bound to go right for the Mets this season, and they should contend for the wildcard.

Projected Rotation                                          Projected Lineup

Johan Santana                                                 Jose Reyes

Mike Pelfrey                                                   Luis Castillo

John Maine                                                     David Wright

Oliver Perez (oh god)                                     Jason Bay

Fernando Nieve                                              Carlos Beltran

                                                        Jeff Francoeur

                                                        Daniel Murphy

                                                        Rod Barajas

3rd Place -- Atlanta Braves

This year the Braves bring along a surprisingly deep rotation, with an offense that looks pretty solid all the way through.

Their rotation is certainly their strong suit though, with the second year starter Tommy Hanson leading the charge. In 21 games last season he went 11-4 with a 2.89 ERA, numbers great for a veteran starter, let alone a rookie. Derek Lowe got off to a strong start last season before fading down the stretch, and Jair Jurrjens put up great numbers last season that he may not be able to match again. Tim Hudson also returns from injury, and at 34 he should be able to put together another very good year.

The lineup for the Braves, though, is a bit worrisome for a number of reasons. First and foremost, Chipper Jones is at a point in his career where his is unable to play a full season of games. Last year he hit 488 AB, but I would be surprised if he matched that number again, not to mention that his power has been trending downward big time. Also problematic is Troy Glaus, who is coming off an injury last year. If he can get his stroke back, he gives the Braves some power that that lose with the deterioration of Jones. If not though, he just adds 2010 to the long list of injury ridden years he’s piled up over the past decade.

The big name that people are talking about right now, though, is rookie Jason Heyward. He is the top hitting prospect in baseball, and deserves to be in the opening day lineup. His contribution this year may not be enormous, but looking to the future he projects to be a premier hitter. I expect the Braves to contend with the Mets for the wildcard, but fall a bit short.

Projected Rotation                                          Projected Lineup

Derek Lowe                                                   Nate McLouth

Jair Jurrjens                                                     Martin Prado

Tommy Hanson                                              Chipper Jones

Tim Hudson                                                    Brian McCann

Kenshin Kawakami                                         Jason Heyward

                                         Troy Glaus

                                         Yunel Escobar

                                                        Melky Cabrera

4th Place -- Florida Marlins

The Marlins have some glaring issues this year that are holding them back, specifically with the back end of the rotation, the bullpen and the lineup – which ironically are three of the most important facets of the entire game of baseball.

To start with the good, Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco are developing into to mid-to-top tier starting pitchers. The bad news is that after those two, the rest of the staff is terrible. Volstad is a failing prospect, and the other two are just not very good. Leo Nunez is a bad closer, so I would look for the Marlins to have some trouble and not fare even as well as they did last year.

The lineup has its bright point in Hanley Ramirez, but other than him there’s no other big names to talk about. Chris Coghlan is a developing player and is getting better, as is Cameron Maybin (kind of). After that though, Cantu is seems very old even though he is only 28, and has little power as a first baseman. Uggla has the power, but is very bad defensively and hits for a low average. I don’t really see this team going anywhere this season.

Projected Rotation                                                Projected Lineup

Josh Johnson                                                         Chris Coghlan

Ricky Nolasco                                                      Cameron Maybin

Anibal Sanchez                                                      Hanley Ramirez

Sean West                                                             Jorge Cantu

Chris Volstad                                                         Dan Uggla

                                               Cody Ross

                                 Gaby Sanchez

                                                 John Baker

5th Place -- Washington Nationals

The Washington Nationals are bad. It’s as simple as that.

They have a very shallow rotation backing an average lineup and a lackluster bullpen. To start with the pitching, when your most talented pitcher is a rookie, you know you have problems. Strasburg is starting the season in the minors, but he’ll be up and in the rotation in no time. He is dominant, and should do well against major league hitters in his first year, and only get better. But he’s still only a rookie, and still only one arm.

Marquis came over from Colorado, and should be a decent pitcher for that Nats. After him, though, the rest of the guys range from not very good at all to outright terrible. Not seeing big things for this rotation. Oh, and it doesn’t help that the Nats have the worst defense in baseball with 143 errors last season (next closest was Arizona with 19 less).

As for the hitting, it’s really not as bad as I may have made it out to be. Nyjer Morgan is speedy and can get on base in front of Ryan Zimmerman and Adam Dunn, two guys with great power. Even Josh Willingham looked good last season, and just might be set for a breakout year. They also upgraded at catcher, as Ivan “Pudge” Rodriguez was brought over for his defensive prowess and leadership abilities, and he should help out a young clubhouse. The Nats actually scored quite a bit last season, and they have made improvements to make their offense even better.

But still, that rotation really holds them back. You hear it again and again – pitching wins championships. Well, this just in – bad pitching doesn’t.

Projected Rotation                                               Projected Lineup

Stephen Strasburg                                                Christian Guzman

Jason Marquis                                                       Nyjer Morgan

John Lannan                                                         Ryan Zimmerman

Scott Olsen                                                           Adam Dunn

Garret Mock                                                         Josh Willingham

                                 Ivan Rodriguez

                               Adam Kennedy

                                               Willie Harris