Top Red Sox Questions: 1-10

by Ian Tasso

Editorial. Photos by AP News

And here’s the moment you’ve all been waiting for.

We’ve waded through JD Drew, Jose Iglesias and Marco Scutaro. But what about Papi? What about Lowell? Ellsbury? Wakefield and Buchholz?

Patience, young ones.

Without further ado, I present to you the real top questions facing the Sox this season. Numbers 1-10. The questions that will make or break Boston’s Boys of Summer. Feel free to comment, question or be angry below. I'd love to see what you think and why you're wrong.

Enjoy.

10. How will the move to left field effect Jacoby Ellsbury? Should he be offended? (Greg; Townsend, Mass.)

It really shouldn’t offend or affect him at all. What it will do, however, is make left field at Fenway a very difficult place to get hits.

Jason Bay was a very solid fielder – not much range, but if he got to the ball, he was going to catch it. Jacoby on the other hand, has all the range in the world, and should look like Carl Crawford flying around out there.

He’s going to turn a lot of bloop-singles into outs, and the fact that left fielders already play in close in Fenway because of the Monster makes it that much more exciting of a prospect.

Cameron’s a proven glove-man in center field. And the move to left for Jacoby really shouldn’t hurt him at all - it's an overall great move for the Sox. And it’s not as if he’s transitioning from catcher to right field. The two positions are almost exactly the same, only he has less ground to cover and a shorter throw to the infield – both of which should help him more than hurt him.

Plus, less of a chance he gets dinged around diving in that triangle, and maybe he doens't miss so many games this year. Stays fresh, few more stolen bases, and then maybe fans won't complain as much?

9. With both Mike Lowell and Adrian Beltre on the team this year, which one see’s the majority of playing time at third base? And what happens to the odd-man out? (Jess; Orlando, Fla.)

As much as it pains me to say it, this is Beltre’s team now.

The Sox made it very clear that Lowell’s on his way out of Boston, and I’d be shocked if he’s still on the Sox come trading deadline time. In fact, I’d even be a little surprised if he makes it that far.

Look at the facts: they tried to ship him out to Texas – for virtually nothing – and it backfired because of a lingering thumb injury. He’s still in Boston at the moment, but if that doesn’t tell you the Sox are over the hump with number 25, I don’t know what else will.

Lowell will most likely be kept on the bench for spot starting and the occasional DH (maybe even 1B) duties until Theo and co. can find a better home for him. Until then though, things will remain awkward at Spring Training as Mikey and Adrian share grounders at third base.

But make no mistake about it – the Sox went out and grabbed Adrian Beltre for one reason and one reason only – to start at third base for the Boston Red Sox in 2010. It's unfortunate, but I've always been a guy who thinks like this in baseball - you have hitters 1-6 to do the damage. That leaves you (in the AL anyway) with three more guys, numbers 7, 8 and 9. They're not supposed to bring the pop. But they sure as hell better bring some leather.

Beltre is supposed to be a bottom guy with a little offense and a lot of defense. Bottom line was Lowell was becoming a bottom guy with decent offense and not so much defense. And that hurts Boston in the long run.

I love Mikey Lowell as much as the next guy, but that’s just the way it’s going to be.

8. Now that he’s hitting in Fenway instead of Safeco, what can we realistically expect from Beltre on offense? (Gabe, Bangor, Me.)

A lot better than last season, that’s what.

Don’t get me wrong – we’re not going to see the 48-home run Adrian Beltre of 2004. Not even close. But we’re also not going to see the 8-home run Adrian Beltre of last year, either.

Safeco field might be the worst hitting park in all of the majors. Fenway, on the other hand, can be a hitter’s paradise – if they use it correctly.

Beltre has great, quick hands – evident by his superior fielding ability – and should be able to get around on a lot of balls and drive them right at the monster. Is Fenway built perfectly for his swing like it was for Mike Lowell and Jason Bay? No. But he’s a smart enough hitter to be able to use it to his advantage.

When all is said and done, what we’re probably going to see is more of the 2007, 2008 Beltre, who pulled in 25-30 homers, 80-90 RBI and around a .270, .275 average.

And if you ask me, that’s not bad at all for a six or seven hitter who was brought in purely for his defense.

7. Is this the year Kevin Youkilis finally becomes the heart in the middle of the order, instead of just a “solid” bat? (Darren, Topsfield, Mass.)

It has to be.

He’s been improving every year, and he’s now the biggest bat in this lineup, second to none. Martinez is a consistent hitter, but he’s going to be taking days off every four to five games, leaving Youkilis as the most realistic 30-home run 100-rbi potential day-in-day-out hitter in the Sox lineup.

Ortiz is no longer that guy. Bay is long gone. Jacoby doesn’t have the power. Neither does Pedroia. Drew is yet to stay healthy for a full campaign. Mike Cameron certainly isn’t going to surprise anyone. And V-Mart meanwhile might not top either number because of scheduled rests.

Right now, Youkilis has to be the heart of this lineup if they want to inflict some serious pain on opposing pitchers – and I see no reason why he can’t. He’s not being shuffled between first and third anymore, and he’ll most likely find a home in either the three or four spot in the order.

Now he can just focus on hitting, rather then where he’s hitting.

People forget - early on last season, Youkilis was crushing the ball, batting at a .393 clip, and looking like he was finally maturing into the middle-of-the-order slugger the Red Sox had hoped he would be.

Then he went down with an injury, and never really regained that stroke back. Granted, he finished with very solid numbers last year - 305, 27 HR, 94 RBI - but he was overshadowed at times by guys like Jason Bay, and his slumps were drowned out by the troubles of David Ortiz.

Now he’s in the spotlight. He’s a grinder at the plate, and he drives the ball more often then not – it’s time for that to translate to a 30+ 100+ season.

He has to. Or it might be a long season for the Sox at the plate.

6. Who’s the real ace of Boston’s staff, and how will John Lackey perform in his first season in Boston? (Alex; Cambridge, Mass.)

This is Josh Beckett’s staff – it always has been, and it always will be. That’s why it’s so imperative that the Sox renew his contract – either during the season or after it. Because they need him at the helm of this rotation. Period.

As for Lackey, I’m expecting big things from the new righty. The Texas native is a more-than capable starter who has posted a career ERA just over 3.50 - something that speaks for itself. At the age of 31 he already has over 1,200 strikeouts and 100 wins to boot. Not to mention he’s Boston’s number three starter.

That means more often than not, he’ll be matched up against the Fransisco Liriano’s of the world, rather than the Johan Santana's and C.C. Sabathia's - something that he should be able to more than exploit.

A lot of Lackey doubters tend to expect less of him because of last year’s injury plagued 11-8 season with a 3.83 ERA. But a lot of Lackey doubters also have difficulty turning the calendar back to 2008, where he was 12-5, and 2007 where he was 19-9. This kid can throw. It’s that simple.

He’s always claimed he wants to come to a winner. Now he’s here. And if he doesn’t perform, it’s on nobody but himself. Look for something around 13-7, 14-7 with a solid 3.5-something ERA – very nice numbers for a number three starter, but simply decent numbers for Lackey himself.

5. Do the Red Sox have enough in then middle of the order to win this season? (Eric; Amherst, Mass.)

Yes.

They lose a lot of shots over the monster going from Bay to Cameron, and they lose plenty of rockets into left going from Lowell to Beltre. I’ll even go on a limb to say they lose a litte pop with Scutaro in the nine-hole rather than Gonzalez.

But even so, a lot of people forget who really is in this lineup: an MVP, one of the most potent bats in the AL in Kevin Youkilis, the second best hitting catcher in all of baseball (who’s finally here for a full season), and the MLB’s leading base stealer. Not to mention David Ortiz – who, even with last year’s struggles still slammed the American League’s 4^th most home runs post-All Star Break with 16.

After all, with the pitching they feature, it’s not like they need a Yankee-style batting order. The days of 10-8, 15-9 wins are most likely behind us. But does this offense have enough pop to win a bunch of 5-2’s, 6-4’s and 7-3’s?

Absolutely.

4. Who’s going to be the fifth starter this year: Clay Buchholz or Tim Wakefield? (Chris, Topsfield, Mass.)

Francona has already come out and said Buccholz is a starter – and how could he not be? He might have been the Red Sox most consistent starter down the stretch. Plus, with Wakefield’s injury concerns, you can’t just be shipping Clay up and down to the minors whenever you feel like it – he has too much talent to be used like that.

Francona has also come out and said Wakefield will be a starter as well – and that he will not be putting him in the bullpen. Not to mention the 17-year old veteran is only 18 victories away from Roger Clemens’ record of 193 wins in a Sox uniform. He’s not going to fall short of that as long as he lives – the Red Sox won’t allow it.

So what does this mean? Only one thing – Boston will roll with six starters until something (inevitably) goes wrong. And believe me, it will.

Right now Daisuke Matsuzaka is already battling with injuries, so he may miss a few weeks or so of the season. So they might even just start with five. And by the time he’s at full strength, Wakefield might hurt himself or Beckett might get a blister – believe me, something will go wrong.

Remember last year? Penny, Smoltz, Beckett, Lester, Dice-K, Buchholz, Wakefield – we had like an 18-man rotation at the beginning of the season. By the end? Smoltz was gone. Penny was gone. Dice-K was hurt. And Paul Byrd was on the mound.

Stuff happens. It’s a long season. For now though, the Sox should keep everyone up, and spot-start Wake until someone goes down or Dice-K proves again that he’s not as capable as we thought he was. And this time, he doesn’t have the WBC to blame.

3. With Cameron, Beltre and Scutaro now in the lineup instead of guys like Bay and Lowell, how much of a regression are we going to see on the offensive side of the ball? (Dave; Allentown, Penn.)

Make no mistake about it – this is in no way, shape or form the same offense as last season.

Boston loses 30+ home runs with the departure of Jason Bay, and the days of Manny and Papi slamming back-to-backs are long gone. This is a different team with a different lineup and a different style of play.

That being said, this offense isn’t getting nearly the amount of credit as it deserves. They’ve still got plenty of punch at the top, and it’s more than enough to win.

Keep in mind Victor Martinez will be around for a full season (instead of just half), Papi most likely won’t poke just two home runs in April and May, and the trio of Pedroia, Youkilis and Ellsbury hasn’t moved anywhere.

And for me, the big difference this year isn’t just the top of the order - it’s about the bottom, too. And in a good way.

For the better part of last season, Boston’s lineup was rounded out by Jason Varitek, Casey Kotchman and Nick Green, who combined for a .238 average, 27 home runs and 136 RBI.

This year? Adrian Beltre, Mike Cameron and Marco Scutaro –who together posted a .266 average, 54 dingers and 174 runs batted in.

I’ll take those last three any day of the week.

2. Which David Ortiz will we see this year? (Ben; Tyngsboro, Mass.)

This might be the most important question of any surrounding Boston this Spring Training.

The fact remains: though this team features some great pitching, a very nicely assembled offense and a tremendous defense backing it all up, the Sox need number 34 to produce if they want to go anywhere this year.

Does he need to slam 50+ home runs like back in 2005? Not even close. Does he need to rake 42 dingers like in ’06? No.

But he does need to supply a hammer that this offense desperately needs. And I fully expect him to.

Last year, his numbers were marred by a dismal spring that saw him hit only one home run in his first two months of baseball. But this year, reports out of Fort Meyers are that he’s fully recovered from that wrist and has showed up a few pounds lighters than last year. And the only thing more preposterous than a one home run Papi in 2009 would be another one in 2010 – it’s just not going to happen.

Over-30 hitters have regressions at the end of their career. It happens. But they just don’t fall off the cliff. Instead, we’re most likely going to see the second half Ortiz - 16 home runs, 52 RBI, .258 avg - for a full season and along a much similar batting average line.

He’s no longer the go-to-guy in this lineup. But he’ll still supply somewhere between 25-35 home runs this year, easily reach 110 RBI (he hit 99 last season), and he’s going to do it all at around a .260 clip.

Will he win an MVP? No. But will he provide some nice pop in the middle of this order? You bet. Plus, the guy’s got a huge chip on his shoulder this year – and an athlete with something to prove is a very dangerous one.

1. Can the upgraded defense win a World Series? (Jess; Orlando, Fla.)

Absolutely.

People forget, that’s how they won the World Series in 2004 – with a move to dump a whole lot of offense (Nomar) in favor of a whole lot of defense (Orlando Cabrera and Doug Mienkewitz.)

Granted, back then they still had the hammering duo of Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz, but they’ve got a whole lot more than just an upgraded defense this season. The trio of Beckett, Lester and Lackey at the front of the rotation in a first-to-four wins playoff series is a terrifying prospect for any opposing team.

To be honest, the fact that some MLB “experts” are predicting that this team might not win 90 games this year is appalling – especially when you consider they’ve topped that number every season except one since Theo took over in 2002. Even last year, when Boston’s team was supposedly ‘nothing compared to other years,’ the Sox won 95 games.

It looks like this season will be like every other, and will take about 80-90 wins to make the playoffs - especially now that the Twins might be without reliever Joe Nathan for a long time. As long as Boston can do that, which they should, they’ll find themselves in the playoffs.

And in a spring that has plenty of questions surrounding the boys in Red, there’s one thing that’s for certain - that three-headed dragon of a starting rotation will make Boston very difficult to get rid of in October.

And that’s all that matters.

REGULAR SEASON PREDICTION:

98-64, AL Wild Card Champions