Top Red Sox Questions: 11-20

by Ian Tasso

Editorial. Photos by AP News

Spring Training is finally upon us.

And what does that mean? Plenty of excitement, plenty of worried Sox fans and plenty of questions.

Only this time, it also means plenty of answers.

And that’s because of the 50-some-odd questions I’ve been emailed, texted, sexted, facebooked, i-chatted (and every other form of communication you can think of) over the past week, I’ve taken the top 20 and thrown them all down here.

Ranked bottom to top, here are the top 20 things, you, the fans, want to know as we roll our calendars into April.

So here goes: questions 11-20 heading into the 2010 season. The top ten will be out shortly, don’t you worry. But in the meantime, you can rest easy knowing that at least these ten worries have been addressed. It’s the least I can do.

20. Did Boston win or lose this offseason? (Ben; Tyngsboro, MA)

Considering what their options were, I’d say they won out. There really weren’t any big shiny names out there, aside from Jason Bay and Matt Holliday, both of whom in the Sox opinion were big injury risks and way too expensive.

Instead, Boston took a look at what was available, and made the absolute best with the situation. Instead of worrying about grabbing a high-priced (and probably overvalued) left fielder, they snagged the best pitcher on the market in John Lackey.

Not to mention the severe upgrades on defense Mike Cameron and Adrian Beltre supply them. Because as much as we hate to admit it, Lowell is done. Watching him try to move around and field at third base might just be the most painful thing I’ve done in a while.

It’s also important to remember Victor Martinez. His trade in the middle of the season cleared up a lot of Boston’s impeding issues – like what to do with Varitek, where to play Lowell, where to play Youkilis, etc. So if you count that as part of their offseason – which you really should – I’d say they made out pretty well.

19. Can J.D. Drew finally stay healthy for a full – and productive – season? And if he goes down, who goes in? (Bobby; Middleton, MA)

I mean, I’m no doctor. Sure, we’d all hope J.D. could keep his body together for a full 162 games. But just as we know there are nine innings in a game, we all know that’s just not going to happen.

That being said, what I can tell you, is that for all the bashing Nancy Drew takes, he did appear in 137 games last season, his fourth highest total in 11-years in the MLB.

Listen; I take my fair shots at J.D., and quite probably more than I should. But the bottom line is, he’s a five-tool player. He’s not the best at any of those tools, but he has them all, and he does each and every one of them above average. And last season, he quietly totaled the most home runs (24) he’s hit since 2004.

This year, he’s probably going to be batting either sixth or seventh for Boston, depending on how Papi performs. A ton of teams out there would kill for a 25 HR-80 RBI guy near the bottom of their lineup card. But the one thing that always hurts me when it comes to Drew, is he never shows any emotion. This is a city that loves guys like Pedroia, Nixon, Youkilis – the dirt dogs.

I mean really Drew, would it kill you to look like you care out there?

The injuries though, they’re unavoidable with a guy like J.D. He’s going to get nicked up. And when he does, it looks like Jeremy Hermida will be the guy to take his place.

Hermida’s a guy who had a lot of promise when he came into the Bigs, and was the number 11th overall pick in the 2002 draft. Unfortunately, he’s never really realized that potential, though he did post career bests in 2007 with an 18-homer season and a .296 average.

But being thrown onto a great team with a solid lineup could be just what he needs. He’s got some great baseball minds to help mentor him, and if J.D. goes down, don’t be surprised if this kid really lends a hand to Boston in the summer months.

Just don’t be surprised if he doesn’t, either.

18. If Jose Iglesias shows a lot of promise at short…could he find his way onto the Major League roster? (Chris; Winthrop, MA)

Absolutely. The Sox front office, entire staff and whole team has all the confidence in the world in this kid - and he seems to be living up to the hype so far.

Both Kevin Youkilis and Adrian Beltre made sure to comment on Iglesias’s fielding so far this Spring Training, showing that not only does this guy have the hype – but he’s got the skills as well, which is much more important.

The question is where does he belong. And right now, the answer is in the minor leagues. But with Jed Lowrie struggling yet again with injuries and the ability to find playing time, Boston may make a move to Iglesias earlier than expected.

It all depends on how Scutaro does this year for Boston – whether or not he produces, or falls the way of Edgar Renteria. Either way guys, don’t get over excited about Jose – he’s a great fielder, don’t get me wrong, but he is after all just a defensive specialist who won’t put up much shinier numbers than Scutaro either way.

At his best, he’s going to be around a .270-.280 hitter, and pop around 15-home runs. But with the defensive skills he has, and it seems like they may be the best Boston’s seen in some time, perhaps he might be the answer the Sox are looking for at short.

But that’s probably a while away. For now, this is Scutaro’s position to lose. As for the backup spot, it’s a definite possibility that we see Lowrie step down to make way for Iglesias sometime in the late summer.

17. Marco Scutaro had a career year last year - can we expect that in 2010, or more of the .260, less than 10 HR hitter we’ve seen over the past 7 years? (Darren; Topsfield, MA)

This one’s tough. For me, Scutaro’s 2009 season was a bit of an aberration.

That being said, it wasn’t like he went off like Beltre did in 2004, slugging almost 50 home runs when he’s expected to only hit 20.

Bottom line is the guy is a career .265 hitter, and last season he finished at .285. Nothing special. He had also never hit more than nine home runs in a season until last year, when he smacked a whole 12 out of the park. And as far as RBI’s, his previous career high was 60 – and he tied that.

So while he may have posted career highs in every single major category, it was only by about 20 average points and three home runs – nothing to write home about.

He was brought in to be a solid replacement for Jed Lowrie, who appears to be on his way out of Boston. Scutaro will most likely hit in the nine hole for Boston most of the year, a bit of a demotion from the leadoff spot he found himself in for Toronto most of last season.

As such, expect nothing more than a little bit better than the average nine-hitter: around a .270 average, 10 or so home runs, and nothing more than 50-60 RBI. Anything more you get from Marco is purely a bonus. His production might jump a little bit because of the protection, but don’t expect anything outrageous.

16. What’s the deal with Dice-K? Is he injured, will he produce, and how well? (Wes; Boxford, MA)

Dice-K might be just as big of a wild-card this year for the Sox as Papi is – only, he’s far less important.

Let’s face it; the Sox have three guys at the head of the rotation that can carry them straight into October and far beyond. Not to mention they have a guy at the end of it in Buchholz that has shown he’s ready to step in and be more than just a bottom-of-the-barrel starter.

So what does this mean for Dice-K? Not nearly as much pressure as in past years.

If he’s healthy – which he isn’t quite yet – he should be able to contribute fairly nicely from the four spot in Boston’s rotation.

But anything more than a 10-7, 11-8 season would just be wishful thinking. Bottom line is the league has figured this guy out, and he’s way to inconsistent with his control to get back to his 18-3 2008 self.

Until we see some improvement, and we’ve seen nothing yet, Dice-K will just be a very expensive end-of-the-rotation arm. He has the tools to be more than that – it’s just that I’ve seen nothing in the past two seasons, or heard anything encouraging this offseason, to expect otherwise.

15. What are the chances of the Red Sox getting Adrian Gonzalez at the deadline, and what would they have to give up to get him? (Eric; Amherst, MA)

You’ve got to think the chances are very high; and a big part of that is because the Sox kept their wallet closed when it came time to reel in the big sluggers this offseason: Jason Bay or Matt Holliday.

Think about it – the Red Sox really didn’t grab a big bat this offseason. And that’s probably because they’re waiting a few months to do so. After all, we all know a hefty slugger was on Boston’s grocery list – and this front office has shown time and time again that they get what they want.

Not only that, but the Sox also did a nice job in holding on to both Clay Buchholz and Daniel Bard (especially in the V-Mart trade), both of which could prove vital in a swap with San Diego somewhere down the line.

On top of that, this year, unlike last, Gonzalez is entering the final year of his contract with the Padres, and an option for 2011 - much like Roy Halladay was last year. This means that San Diego is going to be far more likely to ship him off to somewhere like Boston, where the Sox have plenty of young names to lure them over with – Buchholz, Bard and Bowden to name a few

.

Unfortunately, as untouchable as he may be, it might take someone like Casey Kelley to seal the deal. Even maybe an Ellsbury or two. That remains to be seen though.

Despite what it might take to bring him here, I love the prospect of Gonzalez in red and white – and I really do think it’s a big possibility this season. It offers a nice back-up plan incase Papi struggles again this year, something that could play a huge part in whether or not (and how hard) Boston pursues the big lefty as the trade deadline approaches.

14. How will the bullpen compare to last season, specifically Jonathan Papelbon? (Greg; Townsend, MA)

I’m getting a little tired of the Papelbon bashing.

Really – this guy picked an unfortunate time to blow his only postseason save ever, and it cost the Sox a chance at a game four in the ALDS. Other than that though, he was 38 of 41 last season in save chances, and was yet to allow a postseason run in his career until that fateful game against the Los Angeles (Angels) (of Anaheim) of Los Angeles (or whatever).

Yes, he walked a lot of people last year. In fact, his free passes actually tripled. But he did his job. Period. Cinco-ocho will be fine, and he’s the closer, hands down.

Meanwhile, Daniel Bard offers something the Sox haven’t had in their ‘pen for quite some time – a hard throwing righty that lets Boston flow right into the closer after the 8^th inning. To be honest, it’s almost like having Papelbon for two innings instead of one – minus the wear and tear.

I love it. Plus, not a bad insurance option if god forbid Paps goes down with an injury.

As for the rest of the guys – they’ve got a very solid group out there. Delcarmen, the Ramirez’s, Okajima – you have to love what they’ve done with their relieving core. They were able to shed Takashi Saito and Javier Lopez, who really hurt them more than anything last season, and added a guy in Scott Atchison who they like a lot, one of Japan’s best set-up relievers last year.

I’ll admit, there are a few more red flags this season then before: questions about who will eat up the innings Lopez, Saito, Billy Wagner and Justin Masterson leave behind as one of the main ones. But overall, the bullpen isn’t really a concern for Boston this year. It’s going to be just as effective as last season when it was one of the best in the majors.

Not to mention Boston added a guy in John lackey that’s going to help eat up a lot of innings for them. Because in the end, the best help for a good bullpen is great starting pitching – which the Sox have plenty of.

13. With Victor Martinez taking on more catching duties than ever before, will that affect his performance at the plate? (Mike; Ann Arbor, MI)

To be honest, I think it may help him.

Hitting is all about comfort. We saw it last year with Pedroia - the more they shuffled him between the one, two and three hole, the more he struggled. Same thing with Youkilis – back and forth between first and third base, it can take away from a guy’s focus.

Baseball players are creatures of habit – coming to the ballpark, stretching out, going through their routine – if you mess with that, you take away from their entire game.

Martinez now has a chance to be a full-time catcher with a few rests a week at the designated hitter spot. He’s in a comfortable ballpark with a comfortable team around him. I really don’t expect the extra catching duties to hurt him.

After all, in the four years where he saw the most action behind the plate (2004-2007), he was his most productive on offense, belting 25, 23 and 20 home runs. The only year in that stretch he didn’t hit over 20 dingers? 2006 - where he had a career-high .316 batting average.

The man will be able to handle it for now. Down the road the next few years though, that’s the real question. But only time will tell. I don’t expect any fall-out in 2010 though.

12. Will Dustin Pedroia rebound from what was a fairly down year offensively for the 2008 MVP? (Joe; Beverly, MA)

First off, it wasn’t really that down of a season at all. The guy is 5’9” and still connected for 15 home runs, which was only two less than his MVP campaign. The RBI only dipped down from 83 to 72, a small price that could really be attested to the guys around him rather than himself.

The average though, that’s a different story. The Sox would love to see their All Star second baseman hit higher than .296, hopefully reaching a bit closer to the .326 mark he posted in ’08.

And that’s what I expect.

He’s not going to run away with the AL MVP honors this season, but sandwiched comfortably in between a maturing Ellsbury and a powerful Martinez should be just what Pedroia needs. Not to mention he won’t be bounced between leadoff and second and third in the order all season, which clearly shuffled his focus, responsibilities and how opposing pitchers threw to him last season.

And I don’t have to tell you that nobody’s throwing high and tight on him again. It’s a death sentence. Every pitcher figured that out pretty quickly. That just means he’s going to have to adjust.

And he did last year. Amidst his drop in homers, RBI and average in 2009, Pedroia actually led the majors in striking out only once in every 14 at bats. That’s the type of production the Red Sox love. And that’s the kind of focus at the plate they’ll need this season.

Plus – this is a different team. Boston doesn’t need Pedey to hit 20+ and drive in 90. They need him to be a 5’9” shortstop – poke the ball to right, shoot it in the gap, get on base, and help us win 4-2.

And he’s more than capable of that.

11. Can the Red Sox beat the Yankees this year? (Jack; Boston, Mass.)

This is the question on every Sox fan’s mind.

And the answer is yes. But it might not be pretty.

During the regular season, Boston may find itself in a bit of a pickle against the guys in pinstripes. After all, the Yankees upgraded big-time offensively with the addition of Curtis Granderson, someone who’s sweeping left-handed swing plays right into the new Yankee Stadium. Not to mention it’s not exactly as if they needed any added offensive firepower in the first place.

The acquisition of Javier Vasquez and a healthy Alex Rodriguez don’t make things any easier for Boston either. In fact, of the 18 games these two teams play against each other in 2010, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Sox drop 10-12 of them.

But that doesn’t mean anything at all. Because the Yankees are supposed to win the AL-East. With that budget, I’d be shocked if they didn’t.

But I’m a firm believer that the playoffs are an entirely different animal.

Pitching wins championships. Defense wins championships. And with Beckett-Lester-Lackey as the three pitchers teams expect to see from Boston in October, I don’t care how healthy A-Rod is, how new Javier Vazquez is or how great Curtis Granderson’s swing is for Yankee Stadium.

Those three arms make Boston very difficult to beat in a short series - and all the regular season wins in the world won’t be able to help New York then.

And that’s when it matters.

So yes, the Sox can beat the Yankees this year. It might just take until October for it to finally happen consistently.

But something tells me the Fenway Faithful won’t complain too much if that’s how things end up working out…

to be continued...