by Tom Nieradka
Editorial. Photos by AP News
The NL central is simply a good old fashioned fun division just because there are so many interesting and odd things going on.
Going down the list, there’s the Cardinals (the most normal of the teams), who for the past decade have been near the top of the division, in no small part due to the fact that St. Louis is the home to the best hitter in baseball.
The Cubs are funny because they are a very talented team, but haven’t won a championship in over 100 years and are showing no signs of breaking that cycle (in other news, Carlos Zambrano is still fat).
The Brew Crew are a personal favorite of mine for some reason that I cannot explain. The combo of Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder gives them one of the best one-two punches in the NL, and half of that combo is a vegetarian oddly enough (and not the half you would expect). The Reds made a big pickup this offseason grabbing the Cuban phenom Aroldis Chapman, which surprised many because the Reds are so often content with terrible pitching.
The Astros, more than any other team, are not aging well with Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt at the forefront of this issue. And finally, the Pirates are going nowhere fast, but they have added some interesting prospects and they do have a really nice park.
2009 Standings 2010 Projected Standings
1. St. Louis Cardinals 1. St. Louis Cardinals
2. Chicago Cubs 2. Milwaukee Brewers
2. Chicago Cubs 2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. Milwaukee Brewers 3. Chicago Cubs
4. Cincinnati Reds 4. Cincinnati Reds
4. Cincinnati Reds 4. Cincinnati Reds
5. Houston Astros 5. Houston Astros
6. Pittsburgh Pirates 6. Pittsburgh Pirates
First Place -- St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals are finally starting the year healthy, and with a strong pitching staff and lineup they
should have no problem winning this division.
They bring to the table two Cy Young contenders in Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright, and if they can both stay healthy teams should have issues facing them in the playoffs. Losing Joel Piniero hurts, but adding Brad Penny kind of balances it out. He should be fine in the NL, and the rest of the crew is decent enough to win the games that they need to.
The only real knock here is that they have 5 key players (Pujols, Holliday, Wainwright, Carpenter, Ludwick) , and if one goes down for a significant amount of time they’re in trouble.
Projected Rotation Projected Batting Order
Chris Carpenter Skip Shumaker
Adam Wainwright Colby Rasmus
Adam Wainwright Colby Rasmus
Kyle Lohse Albert Pujols
Brad Penny Matt Holliday
Jamie Garcia Ryan Ludwick
Yadier Molina
Brendan Ryan
David Freese
David Freese
Second Place -- Milwaukee Brewers
I really do like the Brewers this year.
Their rotation isn’t stunning, and neither is their lineup - but sometimes things just fall into place and I think this year the Brewers should be able do well enough to contend for the wild card (and maybe even the division title if someone on the Cards goes down).
The rotation can seem a little scary at first glance, but not so fast there tiger. Yovani Gallardo is fine being the staff ace, and as he develops he should be able to hold it down better in the second half and maybe even contend for a Cy Young. Randy Wolf seems old but is only 33, and is continually underrated. Doug Davis is a solid addition to the middle of that rotation, and the rest of the guys are passable.
Again, like the rotation, the lineup doesn’t really turn heads but is very solid all the way through. Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder are insane in the middle of that order, but we knew that already. Alcides Escobar is their breakout candidate this year; he has speed, can hit for average and should be a great lead-off guy if he can build up some patience at the plate.
Rickie Weeks hasn’t been very good, but he has the skills to be among the better second basemen in the league - if he can stay healthy.
The rest of the Crew is nothing very special, but they do have some potential (except for Corey Hart, he sucks). I like the balance of the team, and if they play as well as I think they will that have a legit shot to make the playoffs.
Projected Rotation Projected Batting Order
Yovani Gallardo Alcedes Escobar
Randy Wolf Casey McGehee
Doug Davis Ryan Braun
Dave Bush Prince Fielder
Manny Parra Rickie Weeks
Corey Hart
Carlos Gomez
Gregg Zaun
Third Place -- Chicago Cubs
I’m down on the Cubs this year, and I actually do think there’s a good chance that they finish below the Reds this season.
If I had to pick one word to describe the Cubs, it's inconsistent. Carlos Zambrano has very good potential, but is very emotional and is never as good as the Cubs expect him to be. Ted Lily is the staff ace and is a good pitcher, but he’s starting the season on the DL and we don’t know how good he’ll be when he does return. Ryan Dempster I don’t buy into and I expect a plus-4.00 ERA, and the same goes for Tom Gorzelanny. And finally Carlos Silva is, in a word, awful.
Their lineup is better, but it just seems old. The meat of the order, Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez and Alfonso Soriano are all over 31 (and two are 34), and have seen better days. All three are injury risks, and have seen their production suffer dramatically these past few seasons. Kosuke Fukodome is very inconsistent between the first and second halves. Ryan Theriot is a decent speedy lead-off guy, as could be Byrd. Geovany Soto might rebound to have a season more like his rookie year, but this team is just way too reliant on 3 old injury prone guys to contend for the playoffs.
Projected Rotation Projected Batting Order
Carlos Zambrano Ryan Theriot
Ted Lilly Kosuke Fukodome
Ted Lilly Kosuke Fukodome
Ryan Dempster Derrek Lee
Tom Gorzelanny Aramis Ramirez
Dontrelle Willis Alfonso Soriano
Marlon Byrd
Geovany Soto
Mike Fontenot
4th Place -- Cincinatti Reds
The Reds will contend for third in this division because they are a good young team.
They have a ton of potential in both the lineup and rotation, and these next few years they should be looking to contend near the top of this division. Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo are both decent-to-good starters, and though their ERA suffers due to their park, they have are pretty fine at the front end of this rotation.
The back end of the rotation though, is a glimpse into the future of the franchise. Chapman is the second most hyped pitcher in baseball, finishing only behind Stephen Strasburg of the Nationals, and if he can get his control down he is projecting to be a staff ace. Johnny Cueto also has a ton of upside, and has proven that he definitely has the potential to be a good starter. And finally, Homer Bailey is another youngster who projects to turn into a viable number two guy in the near future.
As young as the rotation is, the lineup follows suit. They already have great proven weapons in Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips.Jay Bruce is developing, but already has great power and now just needs some average to go along with it. Stubbs is also a developing talent, and should end up being a pretty good hitter.
The Reds shouldn’t have much trouble scoring runs this year, the only question is whether or not they can score enough to back up the young pitching staff through their developmental troubles.
Projected Rotation Projected Batting Order
Aaron Harang Drew Stubbs
Bronson Arroyo Chris Dickerson
Johnny Cueto Joey Votto
Homer Bailey Brandon Phillips
Aroldis Chapman Jay Bruce
Scott Rolen
Orlando Cabrera
Ramon Hernandez
5th Place -- Houston Astros
The Astros, much like the Cubs, are not aging well.
They have a few good pieces, but they have neither the depth nor the high level talent to compete for a title yet.
Oswalt has been money as the staff ace in the past, but he is coming off a bad year and I question whether or not he will be able to rebound. Wandy Rodriguez should become the ace sometime this season, and he is a legit number one starter. The rest of the guys are nothing special, but Bud Norris and Brett Myers should both be decent.
The real problem here stems from the lineup. They are very reliant on two aging stars in Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee. Lee has been slowing down, and Berkman is a constant injury risk. Hunter Pence and Michael Bourne are both young and talented, but they are not enough to carry the team if Berkman or Lee miss significant time or fail to produce like they have in the past.
I don’t see a great deal of scoring on this team, and they are firmly a mediocre team in my mind.
Projected Rotation Projected Batting Order
Roy Oswalt Michael Bourne
Wandy Rodriguez Kazuo Matsui
Bud Norris Lance Berkman
Brett Myers Carlos Lee
Brian Moehler Hunter Pence
Pedro Feliz
Tommy Manzeila
J.R. Towles
6th Place -- Pittsburgh Pirates
When looking up and down the Pirates roster, one can only say “Wow, how is it possible that a team has so little talent?” Indeed, this is what I said.
Their rotation is actually their strong suit. Paul Maholm, Zach Duke, and Ross Ohlendorf are all decent pitchers, and are even slightly underrated due to the team that they play on. But still, three average pitchers who would probably be number 3/4 on most other teams do not a good rotation make.
The lineup is, to put it simply, the worst in baseball. I understand that they got some prospects back, but this team was among the worst in baseball last year WITH Adam LaRoche, Nyjer Morgan, and Freddy Sanchez. Now that have none of them, making their cleanup hitter Garrett Jones who hit all of 21 home runs last season. Andy LaRoche is far inferior to his brother Adam, Anikori Iwamura is coming off an injury, and Lastings Milledge is a failed prospect.
The one bright part of an otherwise dismal team is Andrew McCutchen, who had a great rookie campaign and is looking to build on it by adding some more power to his skill set.
This team is not getting anywhere this season or in the near future.
Projected Rotation Projected Batting Order
Paul Maholm Andrew McCutchen
Zach Duke Akinori Iwamura
Russ Ohlendorf Andy LaRoche
Charlie Morton Garrett Jones
Daniel McCutchen Lastings Milledge
Jeff Clement
Ryan Doumit
Ronny Cedeno
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