In-Depth: Colorado Rockies Preview

by Alex Tam

Editorial. Photos by AP News

In 2007, destiny grabbed the Rockies by the reins and drove them to their first World Series appearance ever. Back then it was looked at as a miracle. The next year, they hit bottom and never even had a chance to make the post-season. 

Around came 09’ and Jim Tracy and it seemed history came to shatter the record books again and the Rockies stormed into the post-season, this time not so lucky. Will this season be a repeat of history? Will they Rockies sorely disappoint after a successful season?

No. Not by a long shot. Not this time.

The main difference I see in this time around, is that them making the post-season was never dubbed a miracle. Sports writers around the country started to take notice, and while the Rockies thundered through the season to the playoffs, it wasn’t luck that gave them their season long hot-streak. So why is the mile high sensation just that? Why should you buy into the hype?

They are simply put, the most balanced and depth-rich team in the division.

They have great defense, depth in the bats, and a solid rotation. For starters, there is no horrendous drop-off in this  rock solid lineup. Catcher Chris Iannetta is probably the team’s worst bat and could be the aforementioned drop off, but Yorvit Torreabla’s replacement, Miguel Olivio, who batted .250 with 23 dingers should see his numbers rise in Coors Field and a better line up. But the real prizes are in the shortstop, the outfield , and first base (no, not Jason Giambi!)

Troy Tulowitzki seems to finally have things figured out and matured. What is truly insane about this young gems talent, is that his talents extend to nearly every spectrum of the game.

To start, he’s gold glove material, missing out on the award to Rollins with a fielding percentage of .990, Tulo’s was .894. He’s already hit 32 long balls, stolen 20 bases, and hit .297 as a shortstop. And for those nay-sayers about the legitimacy of his numbers in Coors? He hit 17 homers at Coors, and 15 on the Road, two of them at Citi Field and PETCO park.

Seems pretty even to me.

And it’s only going to get better from here. We could see the next coming of Hanley Ramirez, which sounds crazy in itself since Ramirez hit the majors just 5 years ago, but in case you forgot, this guy hit 32 dingers and stole 35 bases in 08. Insane.

Luckily, unlike the Marlins, Tulo’s team has other bats to lean on, like veteran Todd Helton’s. His long ball glory days are over, but his career batting average of .327 and OBP of .427 aren’t. His gold glove defense is nice to have too with a fielding percentage of .998 in ’09 (better than the winner’s .995).

There’s a lot of buzz about Ian Stewart and his potential, but even if he doesn’t live up to the hype replicates his previous years, 25 homers ain’t so bad. What is living up to the buzz, however, is the Rockies’ outfield.

Dexter Fowler is an interesting case.

Here is a guy who has lightning fast speed, is a switch hitter, and the only thing keeping him as the talk of the league is his troubles against righties, that ultimately drags his average down to mediocre level.

These troubles won’t continue much longer given the talents of this young man. He stole 27 bases last year and I expect that number to dip into the mid 30’s, maybe even high 30’s.

Meanwhile, Carlos Gonzalez will have the Athletics kicking themselves for trading him away. Besides performing admirably in the playoffs, (the guy went 4-8 against Cliff Lee) this young man in his 278 AB’s hit .284 with 13 homeruns and 16 stolen-bases. There is no reason to believe that both of those numbers will pass 20 with the increased playing time. Gonzalez also brings perhaps the best defense to left field in Coors Field history.

As for the rest of the outfield, there’s the always solid Brad Hawpe and back up Seth Smith who hit .293 and 15 homers.

Bottom line is, you can have the names, but it all comes down to getting on base, and scoring runs. Whether it’s through pure speed a la Carl Crawford and BJ Upton, or relying on your home run king like Mark Reynolds, the pieces on your team need to work in harmony. 23.1 That’s the percentage of pitches outside the strike zone that the Rockies swung at in 09’, the most disciplined in the NL. That translated into 804 runs scored, second most in the NL. Besides the Phillies (820) and the Rockies, nobody even touched 790.

Now, while the rotation doesn’t WOW like the Giants does, it is young, has great potential, and has depth.

The Rockies managed to win the wild card with the rotation they had last year, and it’s only going to get better. Jeff Francis was plagued with injuries last year and was never his 2007 self.

The once and future Ace is a big question mark, much like Cole Hamels. Either way, worst case scenario is that he becomes the Rockies' fourth or fifth starter - not a bad four or five man to have by any means.

In his own right, Ubaldo Jimenez is knocking on the doors of the elite pitchers of the game. Jimenez has the fastest fastball in the majors at an average of 95.7 mph. His 3 other off-speed pitches are above average, which is rare to find in pitchers. He has consistency issues but the trend is slowly going in the direction of consistency, which is a good thing showing that it’s no fluke. 

Oh, and did I mention the no-hitter? People love to point out flaws with his no-hitter stating that it was unimpressive. Too many walks, not enough strikeouts, eh. Well, I’m sorry that his no-hitter wasn’t good enough for you people but here’s why it was great. Ubaldo was having control issues, no doubt. As soon as people got on base however, he dealt. So he evolved and started throwing from the stretch, even when there weren’t people on base. 

That ability, to not be rattled, to be comfortable with people on base, and to evolve to stay one step ahead of the hitters is the showing of a true pitcher, not a thrower. Watch out for this guy.

But one of the biggest reasons the Rockies will take first the division, goes by the name of Jorge De La Rosa. The guy went 16-9 in 2009, but what’s more impressive is that after an 0-6 start, he finished with a 16-3 record with 193 K’s.

It’s no coincidence that these numbers coincide with him pitching the most innings in his career. His change-up is devastating and like Jimenez, and similar to Ubaldo, he has youth on his side.

Colorado’s third starter – and the NL’s starting pitcher in last year’s All Star game - Aaron Cook, has been mediocre ever since his all-star year in ’08. But as with most sinkerball pitchers, mechanics is everything and injuries can really screw with that (he actually had a rib removed because it was screwing with his pitching motions). As long as he is healthy, I don’t see why he can’t return to one of the best sinkerball pitchers in the majors.

Cook is never-the-less a solid third man. With a 1-2 that rank sixth and eighth in strikeouts in the NL respectively, the front end of the rotation is in good shape. Questions remain about the shaky bullpen, and the lower end of the rotation, but with only 2 blown saves and solid depth in the rotation, the pitching staff should be good to go.

Their biggest competition, meanwhile, come in the form of the Joe Torre and the Big Bad Blue.

But this time, the Dodgers are the more flawed team, featuring strong bats in Manny, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, a very strong closer, and, well…not much else.

Their biggest weakness lies within their rotation, which happens to be arguably the most important aspect of baseball – and maybe the reason the Dodgers can never seem to get out of the first round of the playoffs.

Chad Billingsly is a nice little ace, and while 12 wins aren’t exactly Cy Young material, he’s not exactly the worst pitcher ever. Clayton Kershaw has a high ceiling (and a problem pitching into the sixth inning), and is something Dodger fans get giddy in their pants over, and rightfully so.

As for the rest of the rotation? Well, it worries me.

But they were first in the league in every major pitching stat except for saves (fourth) and QS (ninth)! Have you lost your senses Tam? Has that Rocky Mountain High gotten to your head?

Maybe, but confident about this one folks.

Chad Billingsly looked stellar and his name was tossed around in Cy Young prediction talks going 9-4 with a 3.38 ERA before the all star break. The rest of the season wasn’t so kind to him. He went 3-7 with a 5.20 ERA. A big part of their success hinges on the ace’s ability to return and maintain his pre all star break form.

And while the Dodgers’ rotation and bullpen managed to post the lowest team ERA in the NL, they have made some serious downgrades in their arms. Here is where I think the Dodgers made themselves vulnerable by not grabbing a big free agency name. The Dodgers lost their most reliable and consistent starter Randy Wolf who posted a 3.23 ERA, 11 wins (only one less than Billingsly) and pitched the most innings on the team, 214.

The Dodgers latest addition, Vicente Padilla doesn’t scare anyone. But here is my main point: while the Dodgers led the league in many hitting and most pitching stats, the Rockies finished just 3 games behind them, and that was with the dismal start in April that led Clint Hurdle packing.

And the Giants - well, we all know the story. Great pitching. Amazing pitching, actually. Especially with the reemergence of Barry Zito. But unfortunately, a lack of offensive output will most likely do them out in the end, much like it did last year.

Even so - it’s mildly unclear who will be the NL West champion. It's quite a race out there. But what is clear is that this race won’t stop until the very last game of the season.

 I predict the Giants, Rockies, and Dodgers, whatever place they may each finish in, to be within 3 games. So if the Rockies win 91 games, the Dodgers will win 90, and the Giants 89.

Crazy, I know, but what’s the fun in being reserved. Being the sheriff in the Wild Wild West will prove to be a marathon, and then some.