Offseason Fantasy Manifesto: Part II

by Nick Traicoff

Editorial. Photos by AP News

I am sorry.

For all those wasted hours you spent feverishly clicking The Last Call, anxiously awaiting Part II of the Offseason Fantasy Football Manifesto during the past two weeks. For all those sleepless nights I have caused, as you wondered, drenched in a cold sweat, if “To be continued…” would ever actually be answered. I am sorry.

It has been barbaric, but please do not let that word resound. I had good reason to wait.

That’s because the third and final thing that all fantasy owners must follow during the offseason is the NFL draft, and this past weekend marked its 75^th anniversary. While more important for keeper leagues than seasonal, the draft still needs to be monitored closely by all.

Whereas college quarterbacks and wide receivers tend to have more difficulty adjusting to the complex schemes and increased game speed of the NFL initially, the transition to the professional level for runners tends to be much smoother.

The early successes of Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, and Shonn Greene in recent years highlight this trend. Given the amount of vacant backfields, and a talented, depth-filled pool of backs to match, the potential for rookies of immediate value to emerge following the weekend was evident.

Remember carefully the three factors—offensive scheme, role, and surrounding talent—in addition to talent that dictate fantasy success. They remain strongly in play here. Keeping these in mind, I propose to you my runaway, #1 Ranked Fantasy Football rookie for 2010. Drum roll please… (R-rated language warning)

Ryan Mathews, RB, San Diego Chargers. 12th overall pick.

The Measurables: Height: 6-0 Weight: 218 40 time: 4.45 225lb bench: 19 reps

2009 Statistics: 1808 yards on 276 attempts, a 6.6 yards per carry, with 19 touchdowns. Caught 11 balls for 122 yards.

Talent Profile:

Need consistency? Mathews ran for over 157.5 yards a game last season at Fresno State, consequently leading the nation in college rushing. This reliability is a result of his truly downhill, north-to-south style. Though he may not be the flashiest back, Mathews possesses patience, vision, and hits the hole hard once it opens, constantly churning out positive yardage while rarely going down for a loss.

While some attest his remarkable consistency to Fresno State’s subpar competition in the WAC, Mathews almost singlehandedly defeated Boise State with 234 yards and 3 touchdowns, added 173 against Illinois and another 145 versus Cincinnati. Legitimacy concerns are overstated.

The guy’s for real.

With solid size and exceptional balance, Matthews has a knack for remaining upright after initial contact and penetrating the first lines of defense. Yet, his prowess between the tackles shouldn’t overshadow his open-field abilities, as Mathews has great straight line speed and acceleration, constantly outrunning defensive backs when he hits his second gear.

If the San Diego Chargers decision to trade up 16 spots isn’t enough testament to Mathews’ raw talent just take a peek at head coach and offensive coordinator Norv Turner’s praise:

“When you see this guy play, you’re going to understand why we made the deal we did…I think he’s extremely special. I think he’s a complete back — physical, fast, he’s got great feet, great vision. He is complete in terms of catching the football…And I’m thrilled to get him here… he’s going to have the opportunity to do some special things here.”

Projected Role:

Best of all, this class’ most complete and NFL-ready runner enters a glaring backfield vacancy in the explosive Chargers’ offense. After releasing longtime legend LT this offseason, the team was left with only change-of-pace, third-down back Darren Sproles on the roster.

Now, the man who idealized LaDainian growing up will be asked to fill his gigantic shoes as the early down, between-the-tackles, and goal line rusher. Turner himself explained in his Q&A with beat writer Kevin Acee the significant workload he expects of Mathews:

That is so hard to say, because there are games that come up like the Tennessee game and the Denver game (last season) where you run the ball 40 times. I’d like every game to be that way. Unfortunately, it’s not. But I would expect Ryan to have 250 carries and 40 catches, something like that. That’s obviously saying Darren is going to have the same role he’s had.

290 touch minimum? Mmmm YUP! It’d be shocking if the talented Mathews didn’t produce at least high-end RB2 numbers with this type of workload. Turner’s wishes of rushing the ball “40 times” a game, even if an exaggeration, still opens the door of potential for much more.

Offensive Scheme:

This is likely where most Mathews detractors will find fodder for their criticism cannons: the Chargers of last year ran a decisively pass happy attack.

My counter? These aren’t the Chargers of last year. As an offensive coordinator, Turner has historically featured the running game, generally with an extremely high success rate—Ricky Williams and Frank Gore had career years in his system.

As such, I don’t believe the Charger’s pass-heavy attack last season was a sudden change in mindset from Turner. Rather, as any quality coach does, he simply was maximizing on the best tools he had, and a plow horse running back was not part of his kit.

LT’s near 3,000 career carries had taken a clear toll, as his lowest ever yards-per-carry average of 3.3 suggested he was running on his last legs. Instead, emerging stars Philip Rivers and Vincent Jackson were the most effective tools in the shed, and thus were focuses.

But now, a brand-new hammer has been added to the golf bag, and given its high price, it won’t be rusting on the bench. BOOM BABY! POWWWW! BRRRAAAAHHHHHH!

Surrounding Talent:

Despite an NFL worst 3.3 yards per carry, the offensive talent surrounding Mathews is undeniable. Rivers, Jackson, and Antonio Gates compromise a passing attack that should keep rushing lanes wide and plentiful, as defenses are unable to stack the box.

Sproles will keep Mathews fresh, especially easing his transition into passing situations—both in protection and receiving—where rookie runners tend to struggle. While this offense has multiple mouths to feed, this will ultimately keep Mathews from being overworked and increase his chances of remaining healthy. As Turner stated, “We’re a lot better team now. Ryan is going to have a real impact, but I’m not sure we’re going to have to put everything on his shoulders.”

The most pressing questions come from the offensive line. In fact, LT recently blamed last season’s rushing woes on his front five, rather than his diminishing talent. Turner, perhaps sending a message, expressed faith in his beefy trench-men: “I think when he (Mathews) sees our offensive line, he’ll know that we’re outstanding in the offensive line and that he’s going to have the opportunity to do some special things here.”

He later addressed, in his Q&A, that the line was indeed young, starting two rookies, in addition to being injury riddled. But, with all 5 starters returning next season, adding a year of experience and cohesion, this line is being underrated.

Conclusion:

Normally, I wouldn’t dedicate an entire, 1,000 word article to a rookie runner. Let it serve as an emblem for how highly I think of Matthews. In addition to his own obvious talent, all the other factors—role, offensive scheme, and surrounding talent—seem set in stone.

My only worry?

The main, and admittedly legitimate, criticism lobbed at Mathews addresses his upright running style that can leave him susceptible to injury. Worrisome, he did miss eight games in his three year college career with various ailments. Surrounded by immense talent and behind an underrated and maturing offensive line, I like his odds to stay healthy.

I am so high on Mathews, in fact, I not only expect him to finish as the top rookie in 2010 by a long shot. Additionally, barring injury, I predict Mathews will be a first-round selection in all 2011 fantasy drafts. Given his third to fourth round price at the moment, he will be a steal.

Indeed, this can hardly be considered a draft recap, as only one player has been addressed. Yet, given the rare success rate of rookies, especially at positions outside of running back, coupled with my extremely high expectations for Mathews, and I felt the need to expose my 2010 man-crush. Expect more draft coverage in the near future.

Regardless, the owner who monitors these three factors—free agency/trades, coaching changes, and the draft—over the course of an offseason has a distinct advantage over his schmuck opponent who picks up a random fantasy magazine on draft day.

If you do so, there will be no need for Chan Ho Park excuses for failure.

So radiate with confidence when that lovely day arrives. Soak in your league members’ fear, laughing at every foolish move they make. Inform them that every pick you make is ten times better than theirs, even if they take the guy you had cued.

Let Mathews and Aroma-sha-dooooOOOOoOoOoo! ring from the mountain tops when they fall into your laps. Because you are informed. You are prepared. And, by god, you’ll be a champion.