Offseason Fantasy Manifesto: Part I

by Nick Traicoff

Editorial. Photos by AP News

Miles Austin, not a starter opening the season, finished with more fantasy points than the preseason number one rated receiver Larry Fitzgerald. Ray Rice, generally selected in the 6^th round or later, finished with the 4^th most points among running backs; meanwhile L.T. and Westbrook, perennial first rounders, plummeted with old age.

Most unsurprising development last season? Brett Favre coming out of retirement. Very surprising development? That he bested Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, and every other quarterback in the league other than five in fantasy points. Yes, another crazy fantasy season has come and gone, and now both winners and losers of leagues are on the same playing field.

And now, we are all returned to this cold, unforgiving world known as reality—a disturbed place without the last-minute Sunday morning line-up changes, neck-in-neck matchups hinging on the final play of Monday Night Football, and relentless trash-talking while your buddy pursues the epic winless season. Unsure of how to spend those 4-5 “fantasy” hours at work, we are left aimlessly wandering around without direction or purpose as Daniel Pewter’s “Bad Day” serves as our daily soundtrack.

Revisiting a blast from the place, just like Romolicious, One Giant Step, and the Boston T.D. Party, all we have left to do is sit around and mope while we endure the long, chilling, football-less months ahead, right? Wrong!

Take your day to whine and mope. Make it therapeutic. Release it all in those salty tears of misery. Now, are you done sucking your thumb and hugging your blanket? Good, because lucky for you, I know a way for you to productively spend those 4-5 hours at work. Doing fantasy football.

Any hardcore fantasy footballer knows championships come equally, if not more so, from offseason preparedness as they do from in season management. Any fantasy commoner can pick the flavor-of-the-week running back off of waivers. True gurus, however, have already scouted that trendy pickup during Unofficial Training Camp activities. The rave reviews from the beat writer of the local paper? Obviously been read. The head coach’s promises of an expanded role during a small-town sports radio interview? Give me a break, of course listened to. Oh and, unsurprisingly, that player that 95% of fantasyland is adding? He found his way onto your roster months earlier during the 15^th round of your draft.

Am I attempting to justify my completely maniac obsession with fantasy football? Perhaps. Does luck play a large factor in who wears the fantasy crown at the end of the year? Yes.

Still, I’ve only missed the playoffs once in my fantasy football career, and in the past four years I’ve been in 3 of the championships for my “hardcore” league. Knowledge and the consequential preparedness are the reason for this success, and unlike luck, owners can actually control this through research. Below I map out three things which owners should monitor closely during any fantasy offseason. Additionally, I provide a few examples of important offseason changes which have already occurred. Without further adieu:

1). Free Agency and Trades:

Knowing which players are scheduled to be free agents, who’s on the trade block, and following where they end up is massively important for fantasy success. Other than talent, players’ fantasy values hinge on three important factors, all of which feed off of one another and all depend upon the team they are joining. They are:

A). The new team’s offensive scheme. Is the team run heavy? Pass-oriented? A balanced-attack? To state the obvious, a receiver joining a run heavy offense likely experiences a drop in value, whereas a running back entering that same system might see a boost.

B). The role of a player in said scheme. Teams generally target free agents with a particular role in mind, aka the Patriots genius trade for Wes Welker as their slot receiver back in 2007. Similarly, whether a player comes in as a lead back or the change of pace runner, or expected number 1 receiver versus a backup, has gigantic implications on his impending fantasy value. What exactly that role is largely depends on…

C) Surrounding Talent. To again use my beloved Patriots, the perfect example of the potential impact a change in surrounding talent can have is 2007 Randy Moss. Coming off a terrible statistical season with the Raiders and their horrendous quarterback play, Moss was acquired for only a 4^th round pick.

Meanwhile Tom Brady, one of the most talented throwers in the league, had always put up quality, but unremarkable numbers, throughout his career due to the lack of any true explosiveness at the receiver position. Moss enters a situation with ten times the surrounding talent, and instantly Brady is equipped with much stronger weapons.

History is made, and both the free agent and a member of the team reap the fantasy benefits. Moss goes from a fantasy afterthought, Brady a mid-round selection, to the top of their respective positions. For a more recent example, look at Brett Favre and Sidney Rice last year.

A quick look at some of the bigger changes from this off-season already:

· Via trade, the Ravens acquired Anquan Boldin from the Cardinals. Although Boldin’s role has improved from a number 2 receiver to a number 1, he leaves behind a pass-heavy offensive scheme and joins one that focuses on Ray Rice and the running game. As such, his stock remains relatively unchanged.

· Former fantasy stars LaDanian Tomlinson and Brian Westbrook were recently sent packing from the teams they forged their legendary careers with. While neither has caught on with team yet, the gaping holes at their teams’ running back spot have many fantasy implications. Lesean McCoy, almost a Westbrook clone, will likely be given the chance to prove his worth in a feature role and sees a nice rise in value. Meanwhile, Darren Sproles remains the only back on San Diego’s roster, and though explosive, expect him to remain in a change-of-pace role as the team addresses its need through the draft.

· Though this year’s offensive free agent talent pool is shallow, don’t rule out an explosive playmaker moving via trade. Donovan McNabb has already been moved, and Brandon Marshall is one of biggest names rumored to be on the trade block. Keep tabs on Marshall and where he ends up.

2) Coaching Changes:

This factor clearly decides the A and B described in number one, and also impacts C depending on which free agents/rookies the team/coach decides to pursue.

Knowing the scheme a new coach plans to implement, the roles he has in mind for his talent, and his past

successes/failures are key. In Washington, Jim Zorn’s unsuccessful aerial attack is out, while legendary coach Mike Shannahan brings his always-successful zone-blocking run game to the nation’s capital. Chan Gailey, who has similar success energizing a run game, finds himself in Buffalo, while Pete Carroll shockingly departed from USC to lead the Seahawks.

Yet, the biggest offseason coaching change thus far does not involve the headman, but rather an offensive coordinator.

Mike Martz and his air circus offense recently found work with the Chicago Bears. Some call him overly-aggressive, to others he’s an egomaniac. Yet no one can dispute his resume as an offensive guru. From the “greatest show on turf” to his revitalization of the anemic Lions for a season, Martz always injects life into the passing game of teams. Featuring an array of 15 to 20 yard hooks, slants, and curls, as well as frequent flurries of the deep ball, Martz’s offense is perfect for the strong armed, aggressive Jay Cutler.

The quarterback sees an instant rise in value, and should post career bests in passing yards and touchdowns. Despite his mistake-filled, disaster of a season last year, Cutler finished with a pair of promising 4 touchdown efforts, and should be one of the top bounce-back candidates for the upcoming season.

Although the offense features no true big name receivers, the likes of Johnny Knox, Earl Bennett, and my personal favorite Devin Aromashodu all feature skill sets to thrive under Martz—long and fast.

Aromashodu, having arguably the greatest last name in the league and already a favorite sleeper of mine, showed tremendous rapport with Cutler over the season’s final 4 weeks, racking up 282 yards and 4 touchdowns.

We have seen what can happen when Cutler grows fond of a particular receiver with Brandon Marshall, and in an offense as pass-laden as Martz’s, I believe Aromashodu will emerge, at minimum, as a high-end WR2 that you can get for a WR4 price, with the potential for much, much more.

With Martz at the helm, he has become my number one receiver breakout candidate, and I look forward to having the pleasure of saying Aroma-sha-doo quite frequently during draft season.

To be continued...